Poll: Josh Beckett or Cliff Lee?

Over the weekend, we learned that the Red Sox might not retain Josh Beckett once he enters free agency after the 2010 season. If this is the case and, assuming the Yankees intend on exploring the free agent market for starting pitching next winter, who do you think they will chase? Will it be Josh Beckett or Cliff Lee? Beckett has a better track record and is two years younger than the left-handed Lee, but it’s tough to argue with Lee’s numbers since 2007.

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Yanks invite 20 to Spring Training

The Yankees have invited 20 non-roster players to Spring Training this year.

They’ll have 60 players at camp. Here’s the team’s press release detailing each invitee, via Chad Jennings.

Thames, 32, was originally selected by the Yankees in the 30th round of the 1996 First-Year Player Draft. He owns a .243 career batting average with 75 doubles, 101 home runs and 261 RBI in 522 Major League games over parts of eight seasons with the Yankees, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers. Since 2006, he has averaged one home run every 14.52 at-bats, marking the fourth-lowest ratio in the American League over the stretch (min. 1,100 AB). Thames batted .252 with 11 doubles, 13 home runs and 36 RBI in 87 games with the Tigers in 2009, missing nearly two months (April 19-June 7) on the disabled list with a left rib cage strain.

LHP Wilkins Arias, 29, spent the 2009 season with Double-A Trenton, going 5-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 48 appearances (two starts) and holding left-handed batters to a .183 (20-for-109) batting average with one home run. Arias was originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent in June 2005.

LHP Jeremy Bleich, 22, combined to go 9-10 with a 4.86 ERA in 27 starts with Single-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in 2009. Bleich enters the 2010 season ranked by Baseball America as the organization’s ninth-best prospect after recording the fifth-most strikeouts (116) among all Yankees minor leaguers in 2009. The Louisiana native was originally selected by the Yankees in Compensation Round A (44th overall) of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft.

OF Colin Curtis, 24, appeared in 126 games with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2009, combining to bat .250 with seven home runs, 48 RBI and a career-high 24 doubles. Curtis was originally selected by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft out of Arizona State University.

RHP Grant Duff, 27, combined to go 4-3 with two saves and a 3.52 ERA in 45 appearances (one start) with Single-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in 2009. The right-hander was selected by the Yankees in the 31st round of the 2004 First-Year Player Draft out of the College of the Sequoias in Visalia, Calif.

OF Reid Gorecki, 29, saw his first Major League action in 2009, batting .200 in 31 games with Atlanta. Also spent time with Triple-A Gwinnett, batting .286 with 27 doubles, nine home runs and 49 RBI in 106 games, setting a career high in doubles. Gorecki was originally selected by St. Louis in the 13th round of the 2002 First-Year Player Draft.

C Kyle Higashioka, 19, batted .253 with 11 doubles, two home runs and 32 RBI in 60 games with short-season Single-A Staten Island in 2009, leading all New York-Penn League catchers in games caught (57), total chances (497) and putouts (451). His 25.3 percent caught stealing rate (19-for-75) ranked fifth in the league. Originally selected by the Yankees in the seventh round of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, Higashioka will be the youngest player in the team’s spring training camp.

RHP Jason Hirsh, 27, owns an 8-11 career record with a 5.32 ERA in 32 appearances (29 starts) over parts of three Major League seasons with Houston (2006) and Colorado (2007-08). In 2009, he combined to go 10-7 with a 5.55 ERA in 26 appearances (22 starts) with Triple-A Colorado Springs and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Following a mid-season trade to the Yankees on July 29, 2009, he went undefeated in six starts with Scranton/WB, going 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA. Hirsh was originally selected by Houston in the second round of the 2003 First-Year Player Draft.

LHP Kei Igawa, 30, led Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in both wins and games started, going 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 starts. With 29 career wins at the Triple-A level, the lefthander now holds the record for most victories in Scranton/WB history. Igawa was originally acquired by the Yankees through the Japanese posting process in November 2007 and owns a 2-4 record with a 6.66 ERA in 16 Major League games (13 starts).

RHP Zach McAllister, 22, went 7-5 with an Eastern League-leading 2.23 ERA in 22 starts with Double-A Trenton in 2009, ranking second among Yankees minor leaguers in ERA. Originally selected by the Yankees in the third round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft, he enters 2010 ranked by Baseball America as the Yankees’ fifth-best prospect and as having the “Best Control” in the organization.

C Jesus Montero, 20, combined to bat .337 with 45 runs, 25 doubles, 17 home runs and 70 RBI in 92 games with Single-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in 2009, ranking fourth among all Yankees minor leaguers in home runs. Named to the midseason All-Star teams with both Tampa and Trenton, he had his season cut short when he was hit by a pitch while behind the plate on 8/1, fracturing his middle finger. Originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent in October 2006, the Venezuela native, played for the World Team in the 2009 All-Star Futures Game at St. Louis’ Busch Stadium. He enters the 2010 season ranked by Baseball America as the Yankees’ top prospect and the fifth-best prospect in all of Baseball (top catcher).

C P.J. Pilittere, 28, combined to hit .220 with one home run and 17 RBI in 55 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Double-A Trenton in 2009. Originally selected by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 2004 First-Year Player Draft, Pilittere will be making his fourth straight spring training appearance after receiving non-roster invitations each year since 2007.

LHP Royce Ring, 29, spent the 2009 season with Triple-A Memphis, going 5-2 with four saves and a 3.04 ERA in 51 relief outings. In 94 relief appearances, he owns a 3-3 record with a 4.93 ERA over parts of four Major League seasons with the Mets (2005-06), San Diego (2007) and Atlanta (2007-08), holding left-handed batters to a .229 (30-for-131) batting average. Ring was originally selected by Chicago-AL as the 18th overall pick in the first round of the 2002 First-Year Player Draft.

C Mike Rivera, 33, owns a .244 (129-for-528) career batting average with 13 home runs and 69 RBI in 181 Major League games over parts of seven seasons with Detroit (2001-02), San Diego (2003) and Milwaukee (2006-09). He hit .228 with two home runs and 14 RBI in 41 games with the Brewers in 2009, making 31 starts at catcher. Rivera was originally signed by the Detroit Tigers as a non-drafted free agent in 1997.

C Austin Romine, 21, was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft out of El Toro High School in California and will be making his third consecutive appearance as a spring training non-roster invitee. He batted .276 with 61 runs, 28 doubles, 13 home runs and 72 RBI in 118 games with Single-A Tampa in 2009, tying his career high in hits and establishing career highs in doubles and RBI. Following the season, Romine was tabbed by Baseball America as the second-best prospect in the Yankees organization. He was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.

RHP Amaury Sanit, 30, went 1-5 with 10 saves and a 3.16 ERA in 44 combined relief outings with Single-A Tampa, Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2009. Sanit was originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent in August 2008.

RHP Zack Segovia, 26, went 1-0 with a 7.84 ERA in eight relief appearances with the Washington Nationals in 2009. He also saw time at the minor league level, combining to go 3-5 with six saves and a 3.24 ERA in 51 appearances (three starts) with Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse. Segovia was originally selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 2002 First-Year Player Draft.

OF Jon Weber, 31, hit .302 with 14 home runs and 69 RBI in 117 games with Triple-A Durham in 2009, leading the team in hits (136) and doubles (46) and ranking third in runs scored (63) and RBI. Originally signed by Cincinnati as a non-drafted free agent in 1999, Weber spent the last two seasons in the Tampa Bay Rays organization.

RHP Kevin Whelan, 26, combined to go 4-0 with three saves and a 2.67 ERA in 44 relief appearances with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2009, allowing just one home run in 67.1 IP. Whelan was acquired by the Yankees with RHPs Humberto Sanchez and Anthony Claggett from Detroit in exchange for OF Gary Sheffield in November 2006. He was originally drafted by the Tigers in the fourth round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft.

OF David Winfree, 24, batted .273 with 48 runs, 14 home runs, 61 RBI and a career-high-tying 31 doubles in 116 games with Triple-A Rochester in 2009, leading the team in doubles, ranking second in home runs and RBI and third in hits. Winfree was originally selected by the Twins in the 13th round of the 2003 First-Year Player Draft.

Hey, look at that—Kei Igawa made the list. Congrats to Scranton’s all-time wins leader.

Photo by Getty Images

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Randy Winn could earn an additional $900K versus LH pitching

From ESPN, we learn that the Yankees have officially announced their signing of veteran outfielder, Randy Winn. Winn will receive a base salary of $1.1 million in 2010, though he can actually earn an extra $900K in plate appearance incentives against left-handers. Winn would receive $100K each for 50, 75, and 100 plate appearances, and $150,000 apiece for 125, 150, 175, and 200 plate appearances. From the incentivized contract, I think it is fairly clear that the Yankees are somewhat concerned about Winn’s ‘09 numbers versus southpaws, as he posted one of the worst slash lines ever as a full-time hitter facing left-handed pitching as a righty (.158/.184/.200 over 125 plate appearances).

Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

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Yankees sign Marcus Thames

According to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees have signed 33-year old outfielder, Marcus Thames. Thames, a right-handed hitter, was originally drafted by the Yankees in 1996 and was traded to Texas for Ruben Sierra in 2003. He is a career .256/.329/.516 hitter against left-handers and appears to be the right-handed bench bat the team has been searching for (we hardly knew ye, Jamie Hoffmann). Thames hit .252/.323/.453 last year while with Detroit. This likely means that the Yankees are no longer interested in either Jonny Gomes or Rocco Baldelli.

UPDATE (4:46 pm) – Via Joel Sherman, we learn that it is a minor-league contract, and Thames, whose primary competition in the spring will be Rule 5′er, Jamie Hoffman, will earn $900K if he actually makes the team.

Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

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Damon to Cincy still makes sense

In his latest piece, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian writes that the Cincinnati Reds, who are in need of more offense and have a vacancy in left field, should look to sign Johnny Damon. Damon is still in search of a home due to Scott Boras’ failings this winter (Damon must also shoulder the blame for his current situation), and has been connected mostly to Detroit, Atlanta, and to a lesser extent, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. The Reds were also linked to Damon in late January, but that interest seemed tepid at best and died down further once the club signed Orlando Cabrera for $3.02 million.

Still, the Reds could be a surprise contender in 2010, for as Dave Cameron notes, “[T]hey have the makings of a pretty good team,” with players like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, etc. Perhaps the organization is aware of this and would be willing to add Damon to better position themselves for a run. Their biggest hurdle, however, is finding room for Damon – even if his price is $5 million or so – in the payroll.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

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Fixing A.J. Burnett’s fastball

Despite being the proud of owner of a fastball that could often challenge radar guns for accurate readings, for much of his career, A.J. Burnett has been surprisingly ineffective with his seemingly impressive mid to upper-90s heat. For instance, while with the Blue Jays from 2006-2008, Burnett’s fastball was, in total, 1.8 runs below average (-4.1 in ’06, +8.2 in ’07, -5.9 in ’08). In 2009, the lanky starter actually posted his worst fastball value mark ever, as the offering, which generally clocked in at 94.2 mph, was 13 runs below average. In the American League, only James Shields (-13.2) and Carl Pavano (-23.6) were worse, and their fastballs were significantly slower than Burnett’s. If one considers that Burnett is essentially a fastball-curveball pitcher, then this becomes an even greater problem.

But how, exactly, does Burnett manage to be so unproductive with a fastball that most pitchers would die for? According to pitch f/x data from a year ago, the movement on his fastball was solid and, of course, the velocity he can wield is above average. Thus, there is little there to indicate a flaw. Perhaps, then, the problem is not with Burnett’s fastball and, instead, the underlying issue rests on what the pie-loving right-hander is not throwing—his changeup.

In 2009, Burnett threw his changeup just 3.1% of the time. This was actually the lowest percentage of any starter in the American League with at least 180 innings under their belt. Though the best items in his tool belt are his gas and his hammer, utilizing the changeup in a way that matched his career average (5.7%) might have helped the 33-year old achieve greater success with his fastball. I say this because, based on historical pitch value data, Burnett’s best seasons with the fastball also featured an uptick in changeup employment. For instance, in 2007, Burnett’s fastball was 8.2 runs above average as he threw the change 7.1% of the time. Further, in 2005, Burnett’s fastball was 7.4 runs above average and 9.9% of his pitches were changeups. Basically, in the years Burnett utilized his changeup more often, his fastball’s efficacy increased. In the years Burnett threw his changeup less – 3.1% in 2009 (wFB of -13.0), 5.0% in 2008 (wFB of -5.9), and 4.2% in 2006 (wFB of -4.1) – his fastball’s efficacy was hindered. While I cannot prove a direct relationship between the two, it does not seem entirely far-fetched to link his fastball to his changeup, as the fastball and changeup are often dependent upon one another in order to be successful. In fact, it is the only noticeable correlation I can extract from the pitch value data (his use of the curve and slider have not varied much annually).

In 2010, I think we might see Burnett go to his changeup more often (it will be interesting to see how much Jorge Posada or Francisco Cervelli might call for it as compared to Jose Molina), as it will likely help setup his other pitches and increase the overall effectiveness of his fastball. Given the available data, it seems like a constructive idea.

Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images

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Morning Bits: Baldelli, Gomes, WAR, FanGraphs

Here are a few noteworthy items on the morning:

• Rocco Baldelli’s cousin, along with 4 others, died tragically Saturday night in a house fire.
• The Indians might be looking at Jonny Gomes as a possible addition to their 2010 ballclub.
• Following my post on Jim Caple’s piece yesterday, here’s a nice read on the utility of WAR.
• Last but not least, FanGraphs continues to improve by adding splits to their player pages.

Here are Randy Winn’s splits from 2009. Anyone want to guess why he was awful against left-handers?

It might have been just a matter of luck, as his BABIP was an absurdly low .179 versus southpaws…

Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

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Bowl Bits: CHONE, Chamberlain, Kielty

Here are a few more items on the day:

• CHONE projects the Yanks to win 99 games in 2010. It’s CHONE’s highest projection ever (h/t to TYU).
• Joba Chamberlain spoke to reporters last week about vying for a rotation spot. Here’s his conversation in full.
• Former Red Sox, Bobby Kielty, is attempting to re-market himself as a RH reliever and a RH bench bat.

Kielty owns a career .296/.379/.508 line against lefties.

In another day or two, I’m sure he’ll be linked to the Yankees. I kid, I kid (sort of)…

Photo by Stephen Dunny/Getty Images

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Runs are not an important statistic… just ask Johnny Damon

Recently, ESPN’s Jim Caple penned a fairly questionable piece in which he labeled the run the “most neglected, underrated stat in baseball.” Caple’s argument was, essentially, that runs are the most important factor in actual games and that all other stats basically “reveal how well a player performs in areas that ultimately produce runs.” Therefore, the run – not WAR, OPS, etc. – is, according to Caple, the most telling number in terms of tangible offensive value.

Caple, of course, fails to realize and outline the manner in which lineup context, in particular, as opposed to individual production, can ultimately influence run totals. For example, Jimmy Rollins, who served as Philadelphia’s lead-off hitter in 145 games last season, scored 100 runs – more than players such as Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Pablo Sandoval, etc. – despite hitting just .250/.296/.423. Clearly, hitting in front of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth had more to do with Rollins’ 100-run season than anything he did on his own. Thus, the argument Caple puts forth is not a very convincing one, and, at its core, is just highly unreasonable.

If run totals actually mattered with regards to player production – they are not meaningless, rather, they are incidental – then perhaps former Yankee and current free agent outfielder, Johnny Damon, would have found a new organization to call home by now. In late-October, Scott Boras talked up his soon-to-be free agent client by alluding to his run totals, as Damon has scored 410 runs while with the Yankees since 2006. However, as we have seen since then, calling upon a strict counting stat, such as runs, in order to illustrate a player’s overall value is a losing argument. Club officials and team executives presumably know this and have chosen to evaluate players through the examination of other forms of more nuanced data. Scott Boras, on the other hand, has learned this the hard way, as he has yet to pick up the pieces and find an effective selling point/message for Damon since his initial run-based argument.

In the end, although stats like home runs, rbis, runs, stolen bases, and so on and so forth are much easier to obtain and comprehend than some of the newer statistics available, that does not mean that they are the most accurate measures of a player’s worth. Understanding and assessing value in any realm, including baseball, is a complex affair. Therefore, while Jim Caple might disagree, complex explanations are often needed to address complex issues.

Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images

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Super Bits: Jose Tabata, Brian Giles, Josh Beckett

Here are a few general news items on the afternoon:

• There are some questions concerning Jose Tabata’s age as he might actually be in his mid-20’s.
• Brian Giles, who had been linked to the Yankees, has signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers.
• According to Nick Cafardo, the Red Sox are hesitant to grant Josh Beckett a contract extension.

Cafardo adds that, due to health concerns, the organization would only provide Beckett with a three-year offer, at most. The Red Sox are apparently concerned about Beckett’s shoulder holding up over a long-term deal. I was always under the impression that the Sawx would retain him, in the end, but, if the fiery Texan enters the free agent market after the 2010 season is over, perhaps we’ll see the two part ways (and maybe the Yankees will take a look at him).

Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

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