Law’s profile on Aroldis Chapman
November 21, 2009, 12:00 pm by iYankees · 11 Comments
From Keith Law’s FA rankings, we find Aroldis Chapman, who was number 5 on Law’s list.
Chapman is the wild card of the free-agent market, as his track record is largely unknown, he has barely thrown for clubs since defecting and he is represented by agents who haven’t handled a free agent of this magnitude before. When Chapman is on, he’ll show No. 1 starter stuff, with a fastball in the mid-90s (and yes, as high as 101 mph) with good tail and a mid-80s slider that will show plus with legitimate tilt, although the latter pitch isn’t consistent. He does have a soft changeup, but he lacks feel for it and pushes it out of his hand rather than selling it with good arm speed. His command isn’t good, and he’s more thrower than pitcher, with a very loose arm that makes the velocity come out easily. Since defecting, he has worked on his body, and scouts who’ve seen him recently say he’s stronger and in better overall shape. He might be a No. 1 starter; he might be an ace closer; he might be a mountain of frustration. Is that worth $60 million? Or the fourth- or fifth-biggest contract of the offseason? Not to me, but he’s worth some eight-figure amount because of the almost limitless upside.
Can the Yankees afford to sign on a minor league player for more than $40 or $50 dollars? Plus, if Chapman commands that much, is he even worth it given his raw tools (they need to be refined)? The Yankees have some very real holes to fill in 2010, therefore, saved dollars can go a long way.
Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images
The Yankees have some holes to fill sure but nothing that can’t be done for cheaper than the Yankees of old would have.
LF/CF- Mike Cameron – 1 year 5-8 million
SP- Ben Sheets- 1 year incentive laden to probably 6 million or more
Bullpen- Either solve from within (Robertson) or sign Soriano the only expensive FA of the offseason
DH re-sign Matsui to a 1 year deal worth 7-10 million
SP- re-sign Pettitte to a 1 year deal worth around 9 million or so
You still have the abiltity to sign Chapman…
At the end of the day I will go along with whatever the Yankees scouts think… Obviously he is going to have to throw a bullpen and probably even to live batters actually swinging and if the Yankees like what they see sign him up.
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Good points, Chris. The Yankees certainly have enough money at their disposal to fix the needs, but beyond that, as you said, there are cheap yet effective alternatives that can be had in order to better the team (while still having Chapman as an option, financially).
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I think if there is anyone that the Yankees will give a bigger contract to it will be Chapman, Lackey is over 30 and Holliday has proven himself to be a good player but not worth 18-20 million a year.
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If Chapman were right handed I don’t think anyone would take the risk he brings along at the price he wants but being a left handed pitcher who has been seen throwing 100 MPH on a MLB baseball gun (WBC) I think you will see a lot more people willing to take the risk.
40 million sounds like a lot of money and in reality it’s even more but when you break it down in baseball terms 8 million per year isn’t all that bad for a guy with potential like this. If he fails you end up wit a very expensive closer or setup man but at least we know he can’t be Igawa because if the fastball.
I look at it like this… 8 million per year even if he turns out to be awful still isn’t a contract you can’t get out from under… It’s not like a Giambi contract that just won’t end and it’s not like Alex making 30 million a year, at 8 per you can be pissed if he doesn’t turn out the way you think but the Yankees can’t be sunk by 8 million and we can’t be forced to firesell because of 8 million and it doesn’t affect signing future free agents because it’s less than double digits a year.
If he turns into a number 2 or really good 3 starter from the left side throwing 97+ 8 million will be a bargain at the end.
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Here’s where I differ a bit. I see a $8 million a year as a ridiculous amount for a minor league player, even one that has Chapman’s potential. I understand the Igawa comparison, but Igawa is a different case in that he wasn’t supposed to be a minor leaguer. I mean, can we really pay a guy like Hideki Matsui $7 million (possibly) or Andy Pettitte $9 million (possibly) and then give Chapman $8 million? It seems tremendously unfair for the Yankees or any other team to have to pay that much money. It’s a tough call because I don’t want the Yankees to lose out on Chapman given his potential, however, I see the situation as a tremendous financial risk during a time of economic uncertainty. Also, giving Chapman that much money will influence future deals with other international free agents.
I want the Yankees to do what it takes to get him, I’m just slightly apprehensive is all.
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I agree with you there… Here is the way I personally would work it…
It would be a contract that averages out to 8 a year but the first 2 years of the deal he would only make 4 or 5 million dollars considering he will be in the minors and the last 2 years of his contract would make up for the 3 million per year he didn’t make at the beginning of the deal. That way he isn’t making 8 million in the minors but he still gets the 40 that it will probably take to get him.
If the price comes down I would love that and it is possible but I feel people will be more inclined to spend on a 21 year old with up side over a 31 year old who wants 100 million.
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Backloading is probably a feasible idea. I wonder how many years he’s willing to sign on for? If the Yankees could sign him to a 6-year deal, I would be open to giving him more money. If I could, I would give him a 4-year deal with a few expensive option years, although I’m not an agent and have no idea if that’s something that he would even consider.
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The years are the thing I have a problem with as well… 4 years is what Contreras got but he was 30 at the time and considering Chapman is so young you would like to keep him under control for as long as possible before having to give him his 2nd contract and if he preforms well his 2nd contract will be huge!
6 years 45-48 million
5 years 40-45 million
That’s the range I was thinking when he first came out with the 40-60 million thought proccess, I don’t think anyone in their right mind will give him the full 50+ million on anything less than 7 years and there is no way he wants to be locked up that long.
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Also unrelated I really like the thumbs up thumbs down part of posts…
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It’s pretty cool, I agree.
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I know learning from players is a little overrated because a lot of players aren’t trying to be mentors but Sabathia is a very similar pitcher when it comes to repertoire with the fastball and the slider and developing change he sounds a lot like the old CC… If Sabathia made it to the point he has by developing his changeup maybe he can even further help Chapman develop his.
More so than the changeup I would almost rather see Chapman throw out the regular change and focus on making his offspeed pitch the “forkball”/splitter that he and Contreras both share because this is one of Jose’s best pitches and it is one of the things that has made him successful when he was.
While his slider is inconsistent (like him) he at times has show a better strikeout slider than Joba, I have watched a few of his clips and been unimpressed with his slider and then all of a sudden he busts out one of the nastiest sliders I have seen and hitters have no chance. If he can get his mechanics down real well I think you will see his velocity start to even out and his slider should start to break with more regularity… Another reason for the huge difference in fastball velocity (form 90-100) is that he has stated he throws a 2-seam fastball which would explain some of the drop but not all of it. In a weird way he reminds me of a less developed Joba Chamberlain from the left side only with more velocity starting than Joba has shown.
It could set up for a deadly rotation in a few years….
CC Sabathia (31)
AJ Burnett (33)
Chamberlain (25)
Phil Hughes (25)
Aroldis Chapman (23)
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