Hughes, not Joba, should be in the bullpen in 2010
January 4, 2010, 11:00 am by iYankees · 27 Comments
Before I begin explaining the viewpoint captured by the above title, first, I must relay an opinion which I have put forth, repeatedly, throughout the course of this blog’s two-year existence. Essentially, I believe that both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes should be full-time starters for the New York Yankees. However, given the organization’s recent decision to bolster their rotation through the acquisition of right-hander Javier Vazquez, it is clear that only one of Chamberlain and Hughes will ultimately be awarded the fifth spot in the rotation come the end of spring training. And, while I am certainly in favor of that competition for it encourages both pitchers to work harder than they normally would without it, I do believe that Joba should be the hurler to receive the honor of being labeled the Yankees’ fifth starter (barring a significant injury or an absolutely awful showing in camp). In order to unpack this thought further, the following is Chad Jennings’ (LoHud) take on the starting situation between both Chamberlain and Hughes.
If one of them is going to bump to the bullpen, I prefer moving Chamberlain because his stuff plays up so well as a reliever. Hughes throws a little bit harder when he’s coming out of the bullpen, but it’s not the suddenly electric stuff we’ve seen from Chamberlain. And, frankly, I think Hughes is the better starter of the two. He has the fastball, curveball and cutter, and I believe the changeup will be a quality pitch.
Now, I disagree with Jennings (respectfully, of course) and my contrary position can be explained via this disagreement, as I shall offer a rebuttal to Jennings’ perspective. First, with regards to “moving Chamberlain because his stuff plays up so well as a reliever,” I would argue that this occurs with almost any good starting pitcher that is moved to the bullpen (in most cases, anyway). For instance, assuming that CC Sabathia would also be good out of the bullpen given his tools (e.g., fastball, slider, changeup) does not seem like an ill fated assumption. Phil Hughes is another example, albeit a tangible one, of a starter with good “stuff” being successful after a subsequent bullpen transition. Even Alfredo Aceves’ repertoire “played up well” in relief. Therefore, in terms of the starting five, this is not exactly a substantive reason for choosing Hughes over Joba. Instead, it’s a generic go-to to support Jennings’ view.
Secondly, as to Jennings’ assertion that “Hughes throws a little bit harder when he’s coming out of the bullpen, but it’s not the suddenly electric stuff we’ve seen from Chamberlain,” I would argue that such a statement is inaccurate. As a reliever, Hughes’ fastball — bettered by the move to the ‘pen where it regularly approached 95 mph — was 13.9 runs above average. Conversely, from 2007-9, Joba’s fastball has never been as effective out of the bullpen, according to pitch value data (it’s good, but not that good). Furthering this point is PITCHf/x data, which notes that the swing-and-miss percentage (whiff percentage) on Hughes’ 2009 fastball — 12.7% — in relief was basically double that of Joba’s, as a reliever, from his debut in 2007 up until he transitioned to a starter in June 2008. In addition, Hughes’ fastball this season was actually the fourth best in the American League among relievers. Therefore, I think it’s correct to note that Hughes’ bullpen bolstered heat was extremely “electric” (and considerably fast), as it was a better offering than Joba’s fastball ever was in relief. In reality, while Joba’s fastball was once a solid pitch prior to 2009, his bread and butter, whether working out of the bullpen or working as a starter, has always been his slider, which, over the past three seasons, has been 22.8 runs above average. This leads me to Jennings’ final claim regarding repertoire.
Jennings states that Hughes “has the fastball, curveball and cutter,” while citing the righty’s changeup as developing pitch with potential (it “will be a quality pitch”). While I agree that this diverse array of pitches make him a worthwhile starter, at this point, none of Hughes’ offerings are actually proven outside of his brief bullpen stint in ‘09. Hughes’ fastball was so dominant in relief, mainly because it frequented 95 mph on radar guns. As a starter, from 2007 up until June of this year, when he shifted roles, Hughes’ fastball clocked in at 91 mph. During that time, unassisted by work in the bullpen, the pitch was 2.5 runs below average (+4.4 in ’07, -4.9 in ’08, -3.0 in ’09) and hitters swung at and missed it only 3.6% of the time. Furthermore, none of Hughes’ breaking pitches have had much success against Major League hitters in his short time as a starter. The curveball is the only one that has had some success, albeit the success it has had can be described as minor (only 2 runs above average over three seasons as a starting pitcher). Therefore, when being compared to Joba Chamberlain, merely recalling Hughes’ repertoire does not seem like the best way to prove that he is “the better starter between the two” (and let’s not forget that Joba also has four pitches).
In reality, of the two pitchers and because of the apparent differences in starting velocity, Joba has shown the ability to throw an above average fastball as a starter — in 2008, for instance, the pitch was 1.6 runs above average (it’s not much, but, unlike Hughes, Joba’s velocity lends you to believe it can improve dramatically from there) — though it is his good slider, worth 22.8 runs above average over three seasons, that is of particular importance. While Hughes has yet to demonstrate that he can have success with his breaking balls as a starting pitcher, Joba has already done that and in convincing fashion. Assuming that the Yankees can figure out what truly went wrong with Joba’s fastball this past season, when his average velocity dipped under 93 mph which contributed to him having one of the most ineffective fastballs in all of baseball, the fiery Nebraskan can go into 2010 with at least two effective offerings — both a fastball and a breaking ball — out of the starting rotation. The same, at this point, cannot be said for Phil Hughes.
Well, that’s not fair, you might say. Hughes has not been given much of a chance in the rotation to confirm his starting worth. And, in that, I agree wholeheartedly. Of course, if Hughes is given a full season as a starting pitcher to showcase his exemplary stuff, including a very good cutter — his newest pitch — which ate up bats in relief, then he can definitely prove his repertoire’s effectiveness. However, why not wait until 2011 to provide him with that opportunity? As outlined above, Hughes’ arsenal — his fastball, in particular — was extremely productive when employed in relief and, statistically, the right-hander could be viewed as a more dominant reliever than Joba Chamberlain. Inversely, Joba has a fastball with great potential, and one that is equipped with more oomph when compared to Hughes’ starting cheese, plus, his slider, which is worth 22.8 runs above average and fields a 21.2% whiff rate, is more than serviceable as it is an above average strikeout weapon (Joba has also shown some promise with his curveball, which was average in 2009, according to pitch value data, and which I have not even discussed in this text). As a starter, he has proven himself, albeit to a limited degree, in a way that Phil Hughes simply has not.
Basically, for the upcoming season, when deciding between Chamberlain and Hughes for the team’s rotation, it seems like the Yankees should choose to use the person who has proven himself in that role, even if it is only to a certain degree, and, currently, that person is Joba Chamberlain. The team could then send Phil Hughes back to the bullpen, to a role that he certainly wore well last year. Sure, when compared to Joba, one can definitely argue that Hughes has the inherent ability needed to prove himself the better starter at some point in the future, however, the team is trying to win in 2010 and should avoid risky rotational experiments. Therefore, adopting that which is historically proven — Joba as a starter and Hughes as a (better) reliever — is likely the correct course of action for the Yankees (practicality also has a seat at the table, as one must consider that Joba is not restrained by an innings limit while Hughes is).
Now, to close, I’ll end this post the way I began it—I think both pitchers should be starters in the near future. But, based on some of the data at our disposal, if we are forced to choose only one to start in 2010, I’m going with Joba.
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
Difficult to disagree with anything in the post. Now that Joba is past any innings limits that were forced upon him, he should be given the full opportunity to become the SP that he was being groomed for in the minors before being abruptly (though due to need) placed in the pen. Hughes will still have innings limits. No sense in creating the muddied situation that Joba was in last season.
A large concern, as you point out, is figuring out what happened to Chamberlain’s fastball. As a starter in the minors it was electric, mid-high 90s and he kept the velocity throughout the game.
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Agreed, Keith. If we expect a fastball rebound from Joba, which, I think is a reasonable expectation, he should be very good in 2010.
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Don’t you think the effectiveness of Robertson is something that went overlooked by Girardi last postseason? Just because you’re discussing the young guns here do I bring that point up. With 12.99 K’s per 9, he was ridiculous last year. Don’t you think he deserves as much attention as Hughes/Joba? His breaking ball is just filthy.
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Robertson is a good pitcher and, perhaps in 2011 he’ll be the team’s setup man. Joba and Hughes get more attention than K-Rob simply because they’re not really relievers while he is. I do think, at times, Girardi didn’t use Robertson in the best way possible during the postseason, but he did bring him in during a number of high leverage situations to get a strikeout. That speaks to how talented he thinks Robertson’s stuff really is.
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I just rewatched Joba in the WS and his fastball was electric and he was blowing it buy the Phillies. It topped out at 96 but looked even faster. Similar to his first turn in the bullpen when he came-up. I think Yankee mgr saw this and are attributing this to his psychological make-up. His personality seems to indicate he thrives on the adrenalin rush of the late game relief moment.
Watching him during the season he at times looked lost/confused – lots of trips to the mound- lots of shake-offs. I don’t think he’s psyched up at the beginning of games ( if I remember correctly he had bad first innings in many of his games)and he doesn’t seem cerebral enough to figure out the nuances of the game needed to go through the opposing line-up 2 or 3 times. Maybe that’s why Posada and him were not on the same page. Posada has been very vocal on how the yankees need more pitching (if he was confident in Hughes and Joba would he be saying this?
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He did bring him in during many big spots, but also pulled him in one HUGE spot which still confuses me, during Game 3 of the ALCS. He got the first 2 outs then he brought in Aceves and we all know what happened next.
If Hughes is a starter and Joba is in the pen, I’d rather have Robertson come out in a big spot than Joba right now. At least until Joba proves he can throw his good stuff again.
Everyone speaks of Joba’s fastball that’s gone missing, but to me the true mystery is his slider which is just awful now compared to what it was. It’s probably not as good because of his lower velocity but man that thing stinks compared to what it was.
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Joba needs to be groomed to take Mariano’s spot like Mariano was for Wetteland. Joba is a wimp and doesn’t have the ice water in his veins to be a starter(too many walks). He has the right stuff to come in and let the fur fly for two innings. Hughes can give you 6 strong innings per start and let Joba and Mo finish up. When Mo finally does retire, Joba can move right in.
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I agree with you Billy – let the fur fly Joba!
P.S I don’t think Joba’s a wimp. Wimps don’t make it to the big show. But I think I know what you mean – he doesn’t have the cool demeanor needed to navigate long innings/games.
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Randy Johnson didn’t have a cool demeanor. But he seemed to navigate through long innings and was a horse. People completely switched on Joba. They saw him in 2008 killing it as a starter and wanted him to start in 2009. He struggled in 2009 and the comments are reversed. He’s young, let him start until he absolutely fails.
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Randy was a freak of nature besides being just a freak. You’re right it’s not a prerequisite to have a cool demeanor to be a successful starter but a guy who pitches better when he’s crazy with emotion probably belongs in the bullpen.
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Jim- Joba has already failed – when the Yankees gambled going with their first three starters on 3 days rest in the postseason rather than use him as a starter – not much confidence in him.
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I don’t think any young can pitcher should be expected to live up to these types of standards in their first year as a full-time starter. It’s like if at first you don’t succeed, instead of trying at least once more, you just give up completely. I just don’t agree with that view.
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You’re right Jim , I think Joba did great for a stretch of time as a starter earlier in the season but then those silly Joba Rules messed with his head. He got so out of synche Yankees couldn’t afford to stick with him. Cashman and Girardi are high string guys prone to quick decisions (example: the removal of Robertson in the alcs game). maybe they’ll give Joba another shot . Cashman has said they (hughes and joba) are both starters.
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I am not going to argue with Chris’ well researched stats. All I know is what I see and I see Joba as a reliever. He has the right temperment to be a one or two inning pitcher where he doesn’t have to think but just fire away. He thinks too much when he is a starter, I have never seen him have more than 1 of his “four” pitches working as a starter. He tries to pace himself as a starter. You say someone is a proven starter when he cannot get through 5 innings without throwing 100+ pitches? To compare moving CC or another established stater to the pen is not relavent – CC is a proven superstar starter. Joba as a starter is an unproven mirage.
I think Yanks are setting up to play 6-7 inning games with a real strong pen setting up Mo. Puts tremendous pressure on opposition to score early against some quality starters.
Finally, do we totally discount Posada’s opinion? He is not paid to manage, but his feedback would seem to me pretty relevant, and on a level none of us in this forum is qualified to dispute – actual MLB experience.
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I completely agree with that article. They should send them both in as starters and maybe bring someone up from triple A to the bullpen. I’m not all that crazy about Brian Cashman and his desisions.
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Most of Cashman’s decisons fron 04 to 08 have sucked. He’s a weasel who when asked about a bad move says it was made by the organization (above him). He’s also a liar. When rationalizing why he wasn’t pursuing Matsui he kept talking about using the dh slot to rest his veterans. Then what does he do? Sign Johnson as DH.
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I will give Cashman props on one thing – getting Granderson was an outright steal! We got younger, faster, better defensively and replaced Matsui’s 30 HRs.
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I love david Robertson – he throws a 92 fastball but batters swing and miss as if it’s 98. And what a curveball! eventually it may turnout he succeeds Mo.
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I firmly believe that Joba should be the 5th starter this year. Not only will he not have an innings limit (but Hughes will), but he deserves at least one full year as a starter before getting permanently pushed into the pen.
And while it’s true that Joba struggled a bit this year, after taking a closer look at his splits, I believe he is set to improve this year:
April: 1-0 3.13
May: 1-1 4.84
June: 2-1 3.79
July: 3-0 2.73
August: 1-2 8.22
September: 1-2 7.15
So half of the year, he was a great pitcher (6-1 3.26 in 88.1 innings), and the other half he was terrible (3-5 6.81 in 67.1 innings). And half of the terrible starts (in Aug and Sept) were abbreviated cause of the “Joba Rules”, which can totally mess with a pitchers head and his rhythm. So given a full year without restrictions, he could potentially turn in some pretty good numbers.
I think the best thing for Hughes would be to start the season in AAA as a starter to stretch him out, then bring him to the bullpen later in the season as a reliever to limit his innings. Then next year he can get his shot in the rotation without having to endure the same BS 2-3 inning starts that Joba had to. And if Joba proves this year that he can’t start, then he can be part of the pen next year and we can find a new starter in the offseason to replace him. Also, keeping Hughes in the minors to start the year will give us an opportunity to see just what Dave Roberston is capable of.
Last thing worth noting is that even if Joba ends up with the same numbers as last year, it still wouldn’t be too big a deal – after all, he will be the 5th starter this year. But I’d rather let Joba have his shot and give Hughes a chance to succeed in 2011 than shut down Joba and possibly mess with Hughes head by imposing limits on him.
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There is absolutley no way Hughes will be in the minors next year – he’s to valuable as an 8th inning guy or starter. Cashman has said he sees both Joba and Hughes as starters which probably means they’ll both compete for the 5th slot -with the loser going to the bullpen. I thought it was a lock that they would continue to develop Joba as a starter until 4 things happened:
1. Joba had an awful august/sept
2. He was left out of the postseason starting rotation
3. Hughes imploded in the bullpen in the postseason
4. Joba found his “electric” fastball again in the postseason bullpen.
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I’ll concede that it’s much more likely that Hughes will be in the pen to start the year rather than the minors, but I hope that he isn’t. After all, if he’s in the pen, and then a starter goes down, then he won’t be ready to take over – he won’t be prepared as a starter. If he’s starting in the minors, he’ll be able to step right in. Also, if he’s in the pen, than it’ll hold him back, since he won’t be able to be a full-time starter next year (e.g. we’ll have the “Phil Rules”), and they’ll have to mess with his starts the same way they did with Joba this year.
The Yanks have a pretty strong team this year, and while having Hughes in the pen would strengthen them a bit now, having him strech out his innings in the minors will help them more down the line. After all, Pettitte and JV may not be part of the 2011 rotation, and a Hughes who is ready to pitch 170-200 innings will be much more valuable than a Hughes who can only pitch 150 innings and can only pitch 2-3 innings during his last 6 starts.
My point is that if they’re going to be starters, then they need to groom them into starters. They’ve done that with Joba (poorly, IMO), which is why I expect him to be part of the rotation this year. Now they need to do it properly with Hughes, otherwise he’s going to have a rough August and September too.
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Yeah- I get it. If they really want them as starters – groom them properly- and stop moving them back and forth to the bullpen. Makes sense but I think first they would have to be comfortable starting the year without Joba or Hughes in the bullpen. A bridge to Mo of just Robertson and Marte seems to thin and unrealistic.
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Hughes has great stuff as a starter. He was solid in his debut in 2007 untill he injured himself pitching a no no. 2008 was a wash because he wasn’t right from the hamstring injurey and sufferd a rib and ankle injurey on top of it.
Can the guy get a break, i know it’s NY but c’mon. When he was called up in 2009 he was throwing harder than 91 like in his 2008 season, he was throwing a consistent 93-94 with life, I saw a couple 95’s here and there in a couple starts. I believe hughes was on his way to a successfull campainge regardless of his role. Hughes had some solid starts in 09 to display his potential as a starter.
Can anyone else see this kid is just regaining form and matureing now that he’s healthy. He shouldn’be be wasted any longer in the BP it would be a mistake.
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So should Joba be wasted in the bullpen this year with Hughes starting? Both of them should be starters, but if we’re forced to make a tough decision between the two, I would still have to pick Joba. Hughes’ fastball was better in 2007 but that was over a very small sample size. Since then, his fastball has been, consistently, in the low 90’s (90-92 mph) as a starter.
He should be given a chance to succeed next season, but this season, that chance should go to Joba.
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In 2010 Somebody’s got to go to the bullpen. Somebody’s got to start. Both have been Dominating and successful as relievers. Both have been shaky and had slower velocity as starters. Both deserve another shot at starting. In spring training both will be given shot at 5 spot. May the best man win. Either way Yankees are in great shape.
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