Randy Winn is not the starting LF for NY
January 29, 2010, 3:00 pm by iYankees · 37 Comments
Note the following from Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman:
Free agent Johnny Damon isn’t upset about being unemployed. Not at all. He is spending time with his four kids and he is staying in playing shape, waiting for the right call to come, from a team with a deal he likes.
“I know what kind of player I am. I know I’m a player who makes a difference and won’t back down,” Damon told SI.com by phone on Thursday.
That’s true in more ways than one.
And it’s apparently true for his former team, as well.
Neither side backed down in its belief regarding Damon’s value and yet neither compromised enough to make a deal happen that everyone figured would happen. The result is that the Yankees have Randy Winn — .158 hitter vs. left-handers last year — as a starting outfielder. And Damon still has to find work.
This notion that Randy Winn is now the team’s starting left fielder – that he is Johnny Damon’s replacement – is absurd. While I’m not sure how the left field situation will play out definitively, I know that there are currently two candidates to man the position and they are Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner. Winn is not yet in that conversation, although, if Brett Gardner struggles – assuming he receives the job – he could eventually enter the fold. For now, however, given his age and poor performance in 2009, he is on the outskirts looking in, and the 26-year old Gardner, with his spectacular speed and potentially golden glove, is a starting outfielder for the 2010 Yankees.
Photo by Getty Images
Brett Gardner career Vs right handed pitching .260/.328/.361/.689
Randy Winn 2009 vs right handed pitching .292/.354/.397/.751
Winn’s splits in 2008
Vs left .289/.343/.470/.813
Vs right .313/.371/.410/.781
Winn’s splits over the last 3 years
Vs left .280/.326/.427/.753
Vs right .294/.353/.404/.757
So I don’t buy that Randy won’t be in the equation during spring training and the Yankees would be dumb to not give him a chance to at least earn the job, they brought him in and you have to see what he can do and right now he has a lot more substantial numbers offensively than Gardner and he can play average to slightly above average defense.
I’m not saying Winn should be given the job out of spring training but to say he isn’t in the equation is silly especially when the other two you put in the equation would both be starting it would just depend on where, bringing in Winn gives Gardner a little competition like with Melky last year when both seemed to be better from the other pushing them.
The Yankees (Girardi and Cashman) seem anything but confident in Gardner starting for the team and this move proves that IMO and while they like the kid I don’t think they want him to be given a starting job without 1. earning it and 2. someone to push him to not be complacent.
You can see from the numbers at the top that Winn has hit well in the past (not for power obviously) from both sides of the plate in the last few years and he can do so again and since he is going from the huge AT&T park to New Yankee stadium maybe some of those fly ball outs will turn into doubles or HRs with the smaller park.
Would you really be that upset with a lineup that consisted of Randy Winn in the 9 hole? If you are then how can you be happy with a lineup with Gardner or Melky Cabrera hitting 9?
Winn isn’t a great player but I have been saying since we got to the point of signing a left fielder that we only needed someone who could play good defense and give Gardner a push with the bat and we did that.
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This move seems more of a condemnation on Jamie Hoffmann than on Brett Gardner, who Brian Cashman said yesterday would be the team’s starting left fielder in 2010. Of course, I think the final configuration will ultimately be Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF, which all but eliminates Winn from the starting equation. I never said that Winn would not be in the fold at all, but as of now, he isn’t the starting left fielder. And, again, I think the final lineup will feature Granderson in LF and the Yankees are not going to put Winn out in CF.
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I can see either happening and I like Gardner but I just don’t know if I believe in his bat enough for him to be an every game starter if he puts up a line like he did last year in a small sample for a full year then I will be fine with it but he has yet to reach the 250 AB mark yet so I am just not confident in it.
No one is moving Granderson to LF just to move him to LF the only reason Curtis would go to LF is because they feel more comfortable with Gardner in CF (he is a better defender than Granderson in CF) but if he isn’t hitting well enough to deserve a CF spot in their eyes they aren’t going to go out and look for another CF’er just to keep Granderson in LF they would simply put Granderson back in CF and place Winn in LF which I think could be work out fine. people act like Winn can’t play but wouldn’t you take his 2008 splits in the 9 hole?
Vs left .289/.343/.470/.813
Vs right .313/.371/.410/.781
In the end I think it comes down to how they look in spring training but I think Gardner gives more value off the bench than Winn does and if Winn can fix his right handed batting then he could earn the LF role and put Gardner back on the bench.
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I think it’s definitely valid to see how they look in the spring. If Gardner is horrible, maybe Winn gets a shot and if it doesn’t work out, they’ll ultimately switch the two. It’s not the end of the world, I just don’t see him being handed the LF job right now as Gardner, in my opinion, could provide more to the lineup especially if Winn’s 2009 season is an indication of what he might provide in 2010. But, yea, he can definitely enter the fold. Assuming his defense holds up, he’s not a bad player by any means.
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I don’t think anyone should just be “handed” the left job no matter who they are because we simply don’t have that caliber of player up for LF right now and I can’t honestly say that Gardner is a better player than Winn or Winn is a better player than Gardner.
Winn is moving from one of the bigger parks in the league to a smaller one with a short RF porch to help his numbers from the left side and as I said before you could see some fly ball outs turn into doubles or HRs here.
Gardner even in his career numbers really doesn’t have a big enough sample size to say anything definitively about his bat prowess against lefties or righties he simply hasn’t had the opportunity to show who he really is and there is a lot of debate to what he can be in the first place.
Both bring good defensive qualifications to the job although Gardner could find himself in CF as you mentioned and because of that he is on a different level of defense than Winn is.
I think it’s unfair to judge him off of his 2009 numbers and say “this is what he is” because you could just as easily make a case to look at his 08 numbers where he hit over .300 for the year in the end I think his 2010 will fall somewhere in the middle of those 2 and given a chance to start you would see him hit around .270-.280 for the year.
I like Gardner off the bench because he becomes a weapon you can deploy at the most opportune time and the other team can barley stop it but if he can hit well enough to justify his spot in the lineup and you combine that with his defense either in CF or LF you have a special player who could steal lose to 30 bases maybe more given the green light often enough.
Assuming they fight it out in spring training I don’t think you can go wrong either you get a switch hitter who has fixed his problem from the right side and speedster off the bench or you have a young stud CF’er who has tremendous speed and defense with a switch hitting veteran presence off the bench who can defensively replace Swisher if the need arises.
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I think you raise some very valid points. I’m starting to thaw a bit on Winn as I read more about him from you and from others. With regards to the 2009 stuff, I think it’s fair to look at those numbers, given Winn’s age, and think that it might be a sign of what’s to come. He’ll rebound – it’s hard to do any worse in 2010 – but to what degree, I’m not sure.
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True he is 35 but moving to a smaller park, getting slotted further down in the order and being surrounded by one of the best lineups in all of baseball should definitely help his numbers a lot and it’s not like last year was a complete waste for him he still hit .292/.354/.397/.751 in 418 ABs from the left side of the plate and that is better the entire way across the board than Gardner did last year. He just needs to get his stance from the right side of the plate right again and when you consider the dip he took on the right side of the plate from 2007 and 2008 to now he has to rebound on that side.
2007- 185 ABs Vs LHP .351/.399/.535/.934
2008- 166 ABs Vs LHP .289/.343/.470/.813
2009- 120 ABs vs LHP .158/.184/.200/.384
You don’t just drop off on one side of the plate like that for no reason, I don’t claim to know what that reason is but you don’t age that quickly on one side of the plate only especially when it’s less ABs than the other 2 years.
2007- 408 ABs vs RHP .277/.332/.404/.736
2008- 432 ABs Vs RHP .313/.371/.410/.781
2009- 418 Abs Vs RHP .292/.354/.397/.751
He had a down year in 2009 from the left side too but it wasn’t a huge dip and the numbers are still better than Gardner did all of last year in half the ABs. Yankee stadium should help raise the numbers from the left side some and if Kevin Long can figure out what went wrong from the right side you have a player with good defense and a bat that should be better than Gardner’s at least for one more year.
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Chris, Girardi sounded like Gardner to CF is a strong possibility.Winn is a 4th outfielder and a very good one.Hoffman is going back to LA UNLESS HE TEARS IT UP OR SOMEONE GETS HURT.
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Going a step further and looking at the bench who has more value coming off the bench in the AL a guy like Randy Winn with some speed but not blazing, good defense, and a switch hitter or a guy who can steal a base as soon as you pinch run him?
With the lineup we have I don’t see a lot of pinch hitting scenario’s and in fact the only guy worth a pinch hit is Gardner seeing as how he is a lefty and hasn’t proven to be strong with the bat yet so if Winn can beat out Gardner for LF it strengthens the bench. You don’t lose much defense in LF since Winn can handle a glove more than fine, you gain a switch hitter into the lineup (if he can re-strengthen his right handed batting) and you strengthen the bench by adding a speed demon to steal a bag late anytime you want it.
I don’t want to force Winn out into the field if Gardner is better in spring training he is better and therefore should start the season either in LF or CF but if Winn can prove himself during spring training I would much rather have a bench consisting of Cervelli, Pena, Gardner, Hoffman?/TBA rather than Cervelli, Pena, Winn, Hoffman?/TBA just because Winn doesn’t offer a whole lot off of the bench for this team in the AL.
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Randy Winn 2007 splits
185 ABs Vs LHP .351/.399/.535/.934
408 ABs vs RHP .277/.332/.404/.736
2007 total .300/.353/.445/.798
Randy Winn 2008 splits
Vs left .289/.343/.470/.813
Vs right .313/.371/.410/.781
2008 total .306/.363/.426/.789
Brett Gardner 2009 in 248 ABs .270/.345/.379/.724
Brett Gardner career 375 ABs .256/.325/.352/.677
Brett Gardner career splits
79 ABs Vs LHP .241/.310/.316/.626
296 ABs Vs RHP .260/.328/.361/.689
If Winn gets his splits up closer to 2007 and 2008 then I think he has a chance to have a more productive year than Gardner with the bat and with his defense in LF being average to above average he has a chance to beat out Brett in spring training.
Now if Gardner on the other hand can hit all year like he did this year with a .345 OBP combined with his speed and defense in CF/LF then he should get the nod over Winn.
As I said though for anyone to eliminate Winn from consideration is silly the guy is a good ball player and he can more than be a 9 hole hitter and starting LF’er for the Yankees. I find a lot of people want Gardner to start and there is nothing wrong with that I myself want to know what he is capable of but at the same time he hasn’t a whole lot with the bat and his main skills are defense and speed so if Winn can prove to hit better than Gardner can he should at least get a consideration.
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T.O.nice job laying out the outfield situation that the Yanks have going into spring training.One point I would make is the Yankees would prefer Gardner to win a job he’s younger and under team control for 4 more years.
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For this year alone I think it’s more valuable for the team to have Randy
Winn hitting at a level that makes him the starting left fielder and have Gardner on the bench as a speed weapon and late inning defensive replacement. Moving past this year Winn has no chance to be on the team but if he can manage to have a season with the bat like 2007 or 2008 he could be a real value in the 9 hole and adding another switch hitter just makes it harder for the opposing team to mix and match.
Gardner’s still young and under team control for 4 more years even if he doesn’t win the job, he would get plenty of at bats even if Winn does beat him out in spring training for the starting job and I also don’t know how much trust Girardi has in Gardner either. I don’t think they distrust him but I am not sure if Joe is optimistic about Brett being much more than a career 4th outfielder and speed demon.
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This post has a 3 controversial elements that has sparked the good Chris H. Vs bad Chris H. Debate:
1. Jon heyman’s ridiculous remark infering that Winn is now the starting LF in place of JD.
He is either a dope and doesn’t realize that Brett Gardner will at minimum be in the competion for that job …. Or heyman is a JD fan trying to be dramatic by comparing a “153 hitter” Winn to JD.
Either way I can see why IYankee Chris would take umberage to heyman’s statements and maybe too enthusiatically write:
1. Winn ” is not yet in the conversation”
2. Winn ” is on the outside looking in ”
while heyman’s comments are hyperbole, Winn has been and may still be a good enough ballplayer to win the job in ST.
TO Chris has done an outstanding job detailing Winns attributes. he shares Bretts strengths as far as outfield range and baserunning. The dude is 35 and obviously not as fast as Brett but he’s averaged almost 20 sb a year the last 3 yrs with a whopping 89% success rate. The question is can he rebound to his pre 09 obps? That’s what Girardi will be looking at in ST.
When we were discussing the YES Girardi interview recently we debated why Girardi was so tepid on Gardner. I noted there was something else brewing that would stir the LF pot. Well here it is and his name is Winn.
May the best man win!
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I would like to point out that I am not on the side of Heyman and I did not even know he had said Winn would be in LF now, I really don’t care for a lot of what that guys says so I just want to clear up I am not defending his writing.
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I agree Chris- I can’t believe the nonsense he writes. SI usually has higher standards.
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This is a great time and opportunity for Brett Gardner to shine. With Damon out of circulation, look for Gardner to bat more consistently, steal more bases, and create more havoc.
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I don’t see how Johnny has anything to do with him being a consistent bat and I think it will be really hard for him to jump from 375 total career at bats to 400-480 or so at bats in one season and maintain a respectable enough line to keep him in the lineup.
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Let’s hope he shines, we haven’t had a guy like him around for a long time, I think some forget what a guy such as he is worth.
Brett is going to be (almost) a rookie again this year. When have we had a rookie expected to put up great numbers in his first full year.
If he can (and I think he can come close or better) put up numbers as good as the first 77 games of last year, he will play a full year in CF(?). This is no longer a kid, he is 26 years old, just coming into his best years with four controllable years left. Why wait another year to see if he can do the job? If he can…we are set for the next few years. If he can’t, we will know what we need for next year and have someone on hand right now to take over…Winn.
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I really don’t see Gardner as a long term solution to any of our outfield problems truthfully, he is a fast guy but I don’t see big things for his bat in the future. He may get respectable enough to be in a lineup everyday but I just don’t think he offers enough in the way of offense to keep either LF or CF for to much longer, for now he is fine because of his defense but I wouldn’t get to many expectations for the kid.
I am not willing to give him the job I want him to compete for it in spring training like he did last year with Melky if he proves to be the better man for the job salut.
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I like Garnder and all but I have a hard time seeing him going from 248 ABs last year and 375 ABs career to having over 450 ABs this year and maintaining a line as good as he did last year. I think he will be lucky to keep his OBP above .330 if he starts all year it’s going to be harder than people think on him to start every game and keep his bat up I hope he does well if that is what ends up happening but I worry about his slumps throughout a season and how he will deal with the fatigue of a full season.
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T.O.I don’t understand your reasoning on Gardner.He hasn’t had enough ABs to come to a conclusion he can’t hit.Check out Carl Crawfords first 2 years,would you have dumped him?Gardner is a young guy fatigue shouldn’t be a problem,to the contrary he needs to play to get better.Gardners been a very good hitter at every level with a high on base and a great eye which complements his elite speed.If this guy does develop into an everyday CFer it will be a big win for the Yanks now and into the future.With the new budget the Yanks are going to have to develop some of their own players.They can’t just buy whoever they want.T.O. you say you like Gardner but your comments don’t convey that at all.
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No I wouldn’t have dumped him just like I wouldn’t dump Gardner now I just don’t believe in his long term abiltity to be a great player, his bat could develop to an acceptable level but I don’t think you will ever see him be an all-star.
I never said I wanted to go buy someone to replace Gardner.
It doesn’t matter if you are 25 or 45 you are going to be beaten down by a 162 game season and towards the end a lot of guys have a yearly decline in numbers because the beating of season has worn them down, since Gardner has never been given a chance to go through a full season we don’t know he will handle it. Just because he is young doesn’t mean he will continue to hit.
Gardner’s OBP has a little more to do with his complete lack of swinging early in the count, I like that he has always been able to work walks but when you watch him play you understand why. He takes the first 2 pitches 70% of the time and very rarely swings at the first pitch regardless of where it is, he lacks aggressiveness at the plate and for a guy with his speed he doesn’t slap the ball on the ground enough he needs to approach the game more like Damon in Boston when he was one of the best slap hitters in baseball.
Yes Gardner does need to play to develop and get better but unfortunately this isn’t triple A or the Pirates and we do intend to win so you can’t just throw him out there and hope he swims. We have Randy Winn and for this year I think Winn will have the better bat between the two and if that is the case then Winn should be starting in LF and Gardner should be on the bench because that is what is best for the team. If Gardner proves to be better then he can take the job but I have a feeling Winn given a chance will have a good year, he hit well from the left side last year and I believe Long can help him even back out on the right side of the plate.
Tim Tebow has been a winning quarter back on every level yet I don’t believe he will even make it as a real quarter back at the next level, success against amateurs or minor leaguers doesn’t always mean success against the big boys. The difference in pitching between A-AAA and the majors is huge just look at Shelley Duncan to see that, he won MVP in Triple A but he never stuck in the majors. Now Gardner isn’t in that level of course but the point is still the same.
So I am not aloud to like a guy unless I abandon thought and blindly believe in him no matter what? Fine then I won’t like anybody because I just don’t buy into blind faith.
I like Gardner he is young and fast and he plays some really good defense in the outfield but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a lot of holes because he does.
I just don’t see the kid as a super star stud in CF and I think the team would be better off this year with Winn in LF 75% or so of the time and Gardner and Granderson the rest of the time.
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I think Girardi agrees with you Chris about Gardner’s potential to be a big league hitter and he probably got info from Long in coming to that conclusion.
The fact that CashMan was offering a two year contract to JD when he had a player with Gardners’ speed and defense waiting in the wings means – lack of confidence in Gardners’ hitting.
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Disagree Twasp…
Cashman may have offered the contract for a whole host of reasons; DH, play a little LF, come off the bench etc.. The offer was made early on before johnson signed.
I say; “may have”, because I don’t know but, it sounds reasonable to me.
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Yeah – I’m sure if JD accepts early there is no NJ and they do the rotation Dh with JD, Posada and Arod taking the bulk of the time.
I don’t really know how they feel about BG. They did give him the starting CF spot last year so they have some confidence and Cashmanhas been quoted as saying BG is our LFer. But listening to interviews my gut tells me the jury is still out whether he can cut it or not as a starter due to his hitting. I’m more optimistic that he can continue to develop.
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ALL that and you didn’t answer the main point which is how in the world can YOU determine after 250 abs and a broken thumb this guy can’t hit,T.O.I would like to hire you to work for me in my indoor baseball training facility.
Gardner hitting with RISP 96abs/313=avg/825=ops
Gardner might be the fastest guy in baseball.
Gardner is Yanks best defensive outfielder.
Gardner 345 obp is very good for a young hitter with speed and will likely improve.
ONE last point T.O.you have written endless posts about defense being more important than offense,but now you take a stance on Gardner thats contrary to your previous thoughts I don’t get it. Maybe you just like to argue.
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Ha ha BP getting feisty – I like it.
TO Chris does have a habit of contradicting himself – I do that to sometimes.
For instance he quotes 3 year history but when talking about Dave Camerons article on JD’s positive uzr score he says to just look at last year’s terrible parformance. Then when discussin Winn he goes back 3 years again and says don’t just look at Winns terrible performance last year. He talks about getting younger and then endorses a 35 year old over Gardner. He says don’t base projections on small sample sizes and then condemns Gardners hitting on 400 pas . He ignores valid responses and cherry-picks irrelevant semantics. He never ever compliments an opposing good point or reevaluates his own thinking. He tends to classify intangibles as just cliche and emotionally biased. His comments are excessively long and frequently stray from the main point.
But and this is a big BUT:
the dude is IMO the smartest baseball analyst this site has had since I’ve been monitoring it. And has made me rethink my opinions many times. All of his rationale is soundly researched whether you agree with his conclusions or not. He is also not just a sabermetric head he understands the game. And I am glad he is back in the fold wheeling and dealing.
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Twasp I agree with most of what you say.T.o. does know his shit no doubt and he writes well .But he doesn’t know everything.I have made a living for 15 years as a fulltime baseball guy and I have many relationships with coaches ,scouts and players ,AND NOBODY I KNOW ,KNOWS THAT MUCH.
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BP, LOL
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Twasp, very good…
I have had disagreements with him myself (as have others), he brought up a couple of things I had not put into my evaluation of a player and after some thought…I changed my mind.
Glad to have him back among us, he has a good head on his shoulders.
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Twasp some of the dumbest guys I know,have the smartest baseball minds you will ever meet.Its called experience.IMO,on this site ERNIE strikes me as a very smart baseball guy.The guy that writes the best and is probably the most intelligent doesn’t make him the smartest baseball mind.Thats just my 2 cents. Twasp your still my boy and the most entertaining guy on this site.
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You da man, BP.
When all is said and done, it’s all just our opinions.
Sometimes I think, Twasp, you just oblivious man. Nobody agrees with your conclusions:
1. JD is a valuable and dynamic player and worth the $. X
2. The Yankees are taking a big risk letting proven winners go. X
3. Matsui would have still been the ideal DH in 2010 X
4. Gardy can be given a long look with our offense to protect him. X
5. A dominant #2 starting pitcher would be the best investment to secure playoff success. (Halladay, Lee, Beckett) X
Maybe I’m too cynical?
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Where is Ernie? we need him back here.
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Twasp,time will tell on most of your points.I think they are reasonable and well thought out.
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Brett Gardner is a game changer! Every time he gets on base, positive things happen for the Yankees. Everyone’s palms start to moisten with sweat, from the pitcher, to the catcher, to the players on the field and all the fans watching because of his devastating speed on the base-paths. I can’t wait for his time at bat…. knowing what he can bring when he contacts the ball. He makes routine grounders to any infielder seem exciting. What more can I say. He’s the real deal…. I don’t care if he hits 250 or even less. Speed can’t be taught, developed or replaced. It’s’ far more exciting to see stolen bases than some guy lumbering down the base paths for a base hit knowing he won’t possibly advance short of another hit.
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Which of the following benches do you prefer?
A. Gardner/Winn, Cervelli, Pena, Hoffman
B. Gardner/Winn, Thames, Cervelli, Pena, Miranda (allows only 6 in the pen)
C. Gardner/Winn, Thames, Cervelli, Pena
D. Gardner/Winn, Cervelli, Pena, Miranda
Bench A doesn’t seem to have enough bat off the bench when you consider Hoffman is defensive only in nature at least for now and neither Gardner or Winn provide power off the bench in any sort of sense.
Bench B provides the most thunder because you have a power bat from both sides of the plate but I really doubt Thames or Miranda would get enough playing time to warrant adding the extra the body to the bench in the AL.
I like benches C and D for the power they can provide but with Thames and Miranda respectively but I really don’t like Thames for the field, he hasn’t been a good fielder really ever but now he is just a bad one and injury prone as well. I think I would rather stay internal and see what Miranda provides, I like Hoffman but I just don’t think we can afford to carry someone without a bat on the bench all year and Gardner or Winn takes over his position pretty easy as defensive replacement and both carry more lumber than he does.
If Miranda could play some RF then it would allow him to get a little more playing time when Swisher needs a rest but I am not sure if he can play the position or not, I heard they might try him out there some last year in the minors but I never heard anymore on the subject and I don’t think it ever happened.
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I like D all the players are under contract.I would also like to see Miranda get some at bats while he is still a Yankee kid has a nice bat and some serious power.The ball he hit in Tampa last year put a hole in their building.On Hoffman I haven’t seen the kid play so its hard for me to have an opinion on him,he could be a sleeper.
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