Brett Gardner’s “amazing” arm
February 5, 2010, 1:45 pm by iYankees · 14 Comments
When many discuss Brett Gardner’s value, they are quick to point to his defense, citing UZR as well as UZR/150 to outline his tremendous glove. For instance, in 2009, over 99 games, Gardner’s 7.4 UZR and 15.4 UZR/150 were two of the best marks in the American League. However, while there is an apparent sample size issue with regards to Gardner’s rating, I think another aspect we should look to examine further is Gardner’s interesting arm rating.
Last season, a significant chunk of Gardner’s UZR was derived from arm runs. He was worth 3.0 outfield arm runs above average, which was, in fact, one of the best numbers in baseball relative to his position in center field. This was no fluke either, as Gardner’s arm in ‘08, between left and center field, was worth 4.9 outfield arm runs above average. Now, most people assume Gardner’s great UZR is predicated upon range and, while that is true, he does have good range – over the past two seasons, he has been valued at 12.2 range runs above average, which is another top-rated number among all outfielders – many Yankees fans would be surprised to know that Gardner’s arm is such a contributing factor – 7.9 arm runs over the past two years – to his overall defensive value, according to UZR.
The added wrinkle here, however, is that Gardner’s arm is not actually as good as UZR perceives it to be. Though Gardner has a fairly accurate arm, I think – based on what we have seen with our own eyes over the past two seasons – it is safe to say that his arm strength is nowhere near a Melky Cabrera, or even a Nick Swisher, who has a stronger arm but is not very accurate with his throws. Gardner’s arm rating, then, is founded upon arm accuracy but is inflated by his speed. Basically, Gardner’s wheels allow him to get to balls quicker than expected. This, then, allows him to gun down runners who wish to challenge him on the basepaths, because of his seemingly weak throwing arm. So, while Gardner’s arm rating is very good, the measure is also very generous as it is furthered by a non-arm factor.
As a result, Gardner’s UZR and UZR/150 are also somewhat aerated. If the 26-year old is given the opportunity to play a full season in 2010, I would guess that his arm rating will decrease as runners will grow more aware of his great speed, forcing them to limit their attempts to stretch out base hits. Thus, Gardner’s UZR figures will also go down. 1 The reason I write this is to temper defensive expectations for Gardner, especially if he patrols center field. While he is a good defensive player – that much is clear – his defensive ratings could come down to earth a bit in 2010.
Photo by Reuters
- Of course, I am drawing upon small samples, so perhaps we will see something entirely different ↩
I had heard that Gardner had a bad arm before I saw him, so I was expecting him to throw like Johnny Damon and when he didn’t, I jumped for joy, so to speak! And yes, his UZR is probably going to come down a bit if he plays 160 games this year, but he’s still a pretty good defensive outfield. I think we can all agree that it will be his range, those awesome wheels of his, that will make him a plus defender, where ever the Yankees end up putting him.
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Mark Newman said the last thing MiLB outfielders learn when they come up is picking up the ball defensively in 3 tier stadiums as there is no way to simulate that in the minors. So while base runners may choose not to attempt extra bases, Gardner will have more 3 tier experience to likely negate any UZR arm loss.
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Good point Rooster,Gardner plays the game at a different speed than most players and you can’t teach that.Melky is a pretty good outfielder but looked slow next to Gardner and I don’t need UZR to tell me what my eyes see.I for one look foward to seeing Gardner play a full season.I also think Brett will surprise alot of people with his bat,my guess on his numbers.
ABS=500
AVG=285
OBP=365
OPS=790
WOBA=350
SB=55
CS=10
Gardner will also be one of the leagues best defenders and will establish himself as a fixture in centerfield for the Yankees for years to come.
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Gee Ballpark, I never thought of you as one of the guys that like what Brett brings to the team. Glad to see you are, he needs as much support as possible. The numbers you put down for Brett, seem a bit high for me but, I hope you are right. I’ve been on the case for him to be in CF for the Yankees for a few years (3 I think). Most fans are not use to having a player like him on the team, they are more in tune with Cano, Swisher and Granderson types. He will make most fans forget about his power hitting and feel he is a plus for the team.
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Ken,I have been a huge Gardner supporter for years.I saw him play in Trenton.A scout with texas that used to work for me first brought Gardner to my attention.Gardy is highly regarded by most baseball people.When TEXAS traded GAGNE to Boston for a lefty pitcher named Gabbard and outfielder Dave Murphy,Texas wanted Gardner for Gagne but Yanks wouldn’t do it and the rest is history.Both players the Sox gave up were pretty good.My buddy was the scout following Gardner and other Yanks and he pushed for Gardner.I spoke to him the other day and he is still very high on Gardner.
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Every year I go on the road and scout our players around the country (for myself). I saw him play about 10/12 games one year and have been posting about him every chance I get. It was falling on a lot of deaf ears.
Back in 2008, Cashman said something like this, “If he were a right handed hitter he would go north with us”. Maybe you remember, at the time we needed a right handed bat.
Good to know some are high on the guy…the funny thing is, he reminds me of me back in the 50’s. Damn, that’s a long time ago. I hope your buddy is right on his evaluation of Brett. So far I am 4 for four…Cervelli, Phil, Joba and Brett made the team last year, I hadn’t considered Pena.
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Ken – That must be a lot of fun scouting the players yourself. Do you stay local or see a lot of different parks? I also have always been a Gardner advocate and get excited when he’s in the lineup and comes to the plate. He’s definitely an explosive player but there is also something more stisfying when one of your home grown young players does well.
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I travel around and see most of the guys I’ve heard about, three (use to be five) of my Army buddies and I. Mostly in the south moving north-east.
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Ken,I like your style,keep it up.
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BALLPARK – Whats your evaluation of Gardner’s hitting approach and what do you think he needs to work on at the plate? The common perception I see on the internet is that Gardner needs to become more of a slap hitter. IMO, this is incorrect. Just because he can fly doesnt mean he should give himself up.
I see Gardner tends to go through some phases at the plate where he is just a slap hitter and other times when he is an agressive pull hitter. When he’s hit well its always as the pull hitter. He hits the ball hard to the right side when he turns on the inside pitch while other times he chops at the ball very late and often fouls pitches off over 3rd base. I always rooted for him to turn on those inside pitches and hit the ball with authority to the right side. He even showed some down the line power ala Damon. I think he’s best served going up with the mentality of hitting the ball hard where it is pitched and use the entire field – not just go up with the idea of drawing a walk or slapping the ball to the left side.
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Fishjam several weeks back I saw K LONG at a coach’s clinic the guy was very impressive.What your describing is Gardner not using his lower half,he initiates his swing with his hands hence the slapping.KLONG is working with Gardner to start his swing with his back knee and hips,hips before hands is a common coaching cue.I have been teaching hitting for 15 years and IMHO Gardner has 2 issues to adjust or fix to be succesful this year.
1-physical,he needs to initiate swing with his lower half,use his leggs more.
2-mental,Brett needs to be more aggresive in the strike zone.
Based on KLONG’S WORK,I think Gardner is going to have a big year surpassing most fans expectations.
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Last year, in the first half (before injury) he was using his lower half much more, after injury…not so much.
He also gets out on his front foot to often, he isn’t strong enough to hit on his front leg.
Agree with your two points. Also think, Long will have a great deal to do with how well Brett hits this year, (as you pointed out). Keep your eye on him after every at bat, he goes over to Long and talks to him about his AB.
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While it’s true that as runners learn to not try and take extra bases as frequently against Gardner, his UZR arm value will go down, holding runners to one fewer base has value which wouldn’t be captured in UZR. It’s not going to be worth as much as the extra assists he gets, but it’s worth something.
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