Fixing A.J. Burnett’s fastball
February 8, 2010, 11:00 am by iYankees · 14 Comments
Despite being the proud of owner of a fastball that could often challenge radar guns for accurate readings, for much of his career, A.J. Burnett has been surprisingly ineffective with his seemingly impressive mid to upper-90s heat. For instance, while with the Blue Jays from 2006-2008, Burnett’s fastball was, in total, 1.8 runs below average (-4.1 in ’06, +8.2 in ’07, -5.9 in ’08). In 2009, the lanky starter actually posted his worst fastball value mark ever, as the offering, which generally clocked in at 94.2 mph, was 13 runs below average. In the American League, only James Shields (-13.2) and Carl Pavano (-23.6) were worse, and their fastballs were significantly slower than Burnett’s. If one considers that Burnett is essentially a fastball-curveball pitcher, then this becomes an even greater problem.
But how, exactly, does Burnett manage to be so unproductive with a fastball that most pitchers would die for? According to pitch f/x data from a year ago, the movement on his fastball was solid and, of course, the velocity he can wield is above average. Thus, there is little there to indicate a flaw. Perhaps, then, the problem is not with Burnett’s fastball and, instead, the underlying issue rests on what the pie-loving right-hander is not throwing—his changeup.
In 2009, Burnett threw his changeup just 3.1% of the time. This was actually the lowest percentage of any starter in the American League with at least 180 innings under their belt. Though the best items in his tool belt are his gas and his hammer, utilizing the changeup in a way that matched his career average (5.7%) might have helped the 33-year old achieve greater success with his fastball. I say this because, based on historical pitch value data, Burnett’s best seasons with the fastball also featured an uptick in changeup employment. For instance, in 2007, Burnett’s fastball was 8.2 runs above average as he threw the change 7.1% of the time. Further, in 2005, Burnett’s fastball was 7.4 runs above average and 9.9% of his pitches were changeups. Basically, in the years Burnett utilized his changeup more often, his fastball’s efficacy increased. In the years Burnett threw his changeup less – 3.1% in 2009 (wFB of -13.0), 5.0% in 2008 (wFB of -5.9), and 4.2% in 2006 (wFB of -4.1) – his fastball’s efficacy was hindered. While I cannot prove a direct relationship between the two, it does not seem entirely far-fetched to link his fastball to his changeup, as the fastball and changeup are often dependent upon one another in order to be successful. In fact, it is the only noticeable correlation I can extract from the pitch value data (his use of the curve and slider have not varied much annually).
In 2010, I think we might see Burnett go to his changeup more often (it will be interesting to see how much Jorge Posada or Francisco Cervelli might call for it as compared to Jose Molina), as it will likely help setup his other pitches and increase the overall effectiveness of his fastball. Given the available data, it seems like a constructive idea.
Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images
The combination of the 3 pitches; FB, curve and change has to be implemented more often by more pitchers…Phil, for example.
I have always believed those three pitches went together better then any other combination. Joba likes to use FB, slider and curve (only one, off speed pitch), if he would throw his change more often…four pitches the hitters would have to contend with (two off speed pitches).
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Joba actually has a very good change when he uses it.
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True, that’s why he should use it more. He gets in a pattern of throwing the slider when he gets ahead, try the change-up once in a while, keep them guessing.
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Burnett needs to pitch better against right handed hitters.
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I think if you watch Burnett’s games over you’ll realize his fastball gets hammered when it runs up in the zone. I don’t personally believe that it’s his lack of change up use, but rather poor control of his fastball. When he keeps the ball down in the zone he’s phenomenal but 95-98 up in the zone is hittable in the major leagues.
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Have you ever tried to hit a fastball up in the zone at 95/98? I have, well maybe only 92/95, to put it bluntly…it ain’t fun.
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You need to take over Dave Eiland’s job
…apparently he doesn’t know any of this.
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You are all close….but the solution to fixing Burnett’s fastball is to teach him the mysterious Japanese “Gyro-Pitch”.
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AJ’s problems always start when he goes to the stretch.
Watch the games. Now you can all figure it out.
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Better use of the change would definitely help Burnett. He follows the basic pattern of throwing the fastball until he gets ahead then going to the curve too much. Using the change in fastball counts would give the hitters something else to think about. IMO the change up is the most under-rated pitch in baseball. It is often difficult to get pitchers with Burnett’s overwhelming stuff to buy into throwing the change more.
But I think Burnett’s #1 issue is getting behind in the count. He tries to be too fine early in the count and falls behind. In those 2-0, 2-1, 3-1 situations hitters can sit on his fastball and take his most devasting pitch (curve) out of their mind. Eiland, Girardi & Burnett all know this to be his biggest issue and talked about it in the post-season. He made a major effort to challenge hitters early in the count in Game 2 and threw a gem which saved the WS. I think he became a little gun-shy early in the season when he gave up some HRs and saw how balls were flying out of the new stadium. He didn’t challenge enough early in the count and it led to his highest BB/9 since his first few seasons with FLA.
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I’ll buy that approach!
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Great obsevation by FishJ,I totally agree.
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