Swisher’s defensive disadvantage, his own arm
March 1, 2010, 4:00 pm by iYankees · 7 Comments
Last season, with regards to defense, Nick Swisher was worth 0.8 runs below average 1 in right field, according to his Ultimate Zone Rating. This mark would actually surprise many Yankee fans, particularly those who are not defensive metric wonks, as there seemed to be a prevailing perception in such circles that Swisher was an awful outfielder. Statistically speaking though, that was far from the truth a season ago and has never really been true historically. Over the course of his career, from Oakland to Chicago, Swisher has been a consistently average corner outfield defender with shades of above averageness. Despite a few strange routes to fly balls that birthed a sense of a fielding ineptitude, 2009 was not a deviation from that assessment. All in all, he was really a decent outfielder.
With that cleared up, digging a bit deeper into Swisher’s UZR, so as to better understand the number’s meaning, I turn to a Swisher UZR Chart – you can read my writeup on UZR Charts here – that illustrates the three components of FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings (for outfielders), range runs (RngR), arm runs (ARM), and error runs (ErrR).
As you can see from the chart, in 2009, Swisher’s biggest strength was his range (blue bar), at 4.3 runs above average, the fifth best rating amongst right fielders in either league, yet it was entirely negated by his foremost flaw, his arm (green bar). Swisher’s arm value, pegged at 4.6 runs below average – almost half a win – was the worst mark in the American League and the third worst in baseball (only Brad Hawpe and Andre Ethier were worse). He and Johnny Damon, who was 4.2 runs below average, were very similar in terms of arm awfulness (now that’s saying something). Swisher’s UZR (red bar) of -0.8 is, essentially, a measure of conflict between range runs and arm runs.
From what we saw last season, earlier in the year, Swisher often threw balls in recklessly, which resulted in errant overthrows. His arm strength seemed average, with accuracy being the main issue. He and the Yankees recognized the problem, and worked to resolve it in the latter half of the season. Though I am not privy to any month-by-month UZR figures – I don’t know if those exist, actually – speaking subjectively, Swisher’s throwing noticeably improved as the year wore on. Hopefully the improvements made will carry over into the upcoming regular season. If they do, then Swisher has a chance to be referred to as one of the best right fielders in the game (this notion is based not only on last year’s UZR data, but on the previous years, as well). It might sound like a stretch, but it is possible (he’s close).
His range is definitely there, and the pendulum doesn’t swing very far in either direction, good or bad, with regards to error runs (yellow bar), so, correcting the arm runs issue will be his biggest defensive challenge in 2010.
Photo by Reuters
- Swisher’s UZR on FanGraphs actually reads as -0.7, however, when you add his RngR, ARM, and ErrR, you get -0.8. I figured it was just a rounding issue, but to preclude confusion, I discuss it as -0.8, not -0.7. I only do this because it is but a fraction of a run. ↩
That chart, great!.. After I took your home study course last week, on UZR, I don’t feel so intimidated. Nice to read your comments on Swisher’s improvements in the field. I took note of him, while at Oakland, and I’m glad he is ours now. Thanks again.
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Glad to hear that you’re not as intimidated by UZR. That’s a big part of why I’m using the charts. They seem to be less daunting for folks, as the numbers seem to mean more with a visual.
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Thanks for the data, Chris. While I am not ready to dive in, it makes me realize that it’s pretty hard for a tv fan to judge defensive capabilities, since the camera usually picks up only a portion of the player’s efforts.
I am surprised and encouraged to learn of Nick’s range, and he can cure those throwing problems. Surely he can beat Johnny’s stat by a wide margin. Do you know what happened to Johnny’s arm, when?
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Hey, Smurfy. Very true about judging defense. It’s awfully difficult to do solely with our own eyes. Swisher’s range has always been pretty good, but his arm has generally been his defensive anchor (last year was his worst rating though, arm-wise). I’m sure he can surpass Damon after some tweaks. With regards to Damon’s arm, it has always been pretty poor. UZ ratings date back to 2002 and since then, it was always a negative for him.
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Chris – After your first article about the UZR chart educated me on the components of UZR, I did a little research and was shocked to find Swisher was last in the AL in Arm rating. Think I was more shocked that ANYONE was worse than Damon.
Swish has always had good range, even good enought to play CF during his career. He is the direct opposite of Abreu who was no range and all arm but I’d much rather have the better range. Range turns extra base hits into outs and big innings into nothing while an arm will generally impact one base at a time.
I think Swisher’s poor Arm metric shows us the only thing worse than a weak arm is an erratic arm. As you mentioned Swish has an adequate arm, his problem was more his decision making. He often threw wildly or overthrew the cut-off man trying to nail runners at the plate which led to the tail runner taking an extra base. This is a huge error (and should be an error in the scorebook) because it puts a runner in scoring position and takes away the DP. With better decision-making and coaching his arm rating should improve this yr.
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Damon’s arm is highly underrated. He has 2 throws. A high arched ball that hangs in the air like a Ray Guy punt and can easily be caught by Posada who then doesn’t have to worry about being run over at the plate as the runner from third is in the dugout with a towel on his head. And a turf burner throw that always bounces exactly 18 times before reaching the plate, making it easy for Posada to time and scoop it into his glove before tossing it to the ump for out of play.
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