Comparing ALCS lineups

I’ve created a quick spreadsheet which compares the probable lineups for Game 1 of the ALCS. The Angels’ lineup included is based on what they employed in Game 1 of the ALDS against Jon Lester — a hard throwing lefty like CC Sabathia — and the Red Sox. I’d expect them to use a similar, if not identical, lineup tomorrow. Jeff Mathis is featured over Mike Napoli as Mathis has become Lackey’s personal catcher, therefore, I’m assuming that Mike Scioscia will go with what has worked for his ace in 2009 (the situation is similar to the Burnett-Molina duo).

As you can see, both lineups are good, however, it’s clear that the Yankees have the better offensive unit. Melky Cabrera is their weakest hitter, though he’s not a bad hitter by any means. Luckily for him, the Angels will probably use Mathis in Game 1, which awards the Angels the honor of fielding the weakest offensive piece in the series opener (that’s good for CC Sabathia).

I’ve highlighted the two cleanup hitters, Alex Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero, as both batters have struggled against their upcoming opponents. I wouldn’t expect another big game from A-Rod based on his history against Lackey, whereas I expect CC to exploit Guerrero’s lack of plate patience. I’ve also highlighted Jorge Posada and Howie Kendrick because their career lines against Lackey and Sabathia are extremely favorable. The Angels, in general, hit Sabathia well, while the Yankees — outside of A-Rod, Cano, and Swisher — have had their share of success against John Lackey.

I’ll have a similar pitching analysis up tomorrow.

Data provided by FanGraphs and Yahoo! Sports