Bill James 2010 Projections: Hitters
October 22, 2009, 6:30 pm by iYankees · 7 Comments
Assuming the Yankees’ lineup is the same in 2010—unlikely, but for the purpose of this post, let’s consider that it is a distinct possibility—Bill James and Baseball Info Solutions project the following numbers for each player (all figures are featured in The Bill James Handbook 2010, which Greg over at Pending Pinstripes pointed me to).
If you are unfamiliar with James’ projections, they are often perceived as overly optimistic, especially for younger players (as seen above with the A-Jax projection, for example). Therefore, conferring with various other projection systems—FanGraphs employs a number of them—is always best so as to avoid potentially problematic expectations (this is especially true for those who rely upon projection systems in fantasy baseball leagues).
James’ numbers are certainly interesting to look at—they’re like movie trailers—and they definitely seem realistic enough to be possible in 2010 (at least they do for the Yankees’ starters). We have some time to kill before Game 5, so what do you think about the projections? Any particular stats stand out to you? I’ll have pitcher projections—both starter and reliever—up tomorrow.
Why did everyone’s HR numbers drop? If anything I could actually see Tex and Alex hitting 40 next year… However according to those numbers the Yankees should consider signing Matsui over Damon.
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Usually the HR numbers are a bit depressed with these projections. I think Teixeira and Cano will surpass their totals from this year.
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I think Cabrera’s HRs total will rise slightly as well (if he gets regular playing time), I would look for him to hit 15-18 I have seen him stay on the ball better recently and correct slumps quicker than before, if he gets regular playing time he will have a good year.
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The numbers look good. If you recall last’s years projections everyone said he was too optimistic, look at them now vs actual numbers he wasn’t optimistic enough!
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Good point, Carlos. Maybe that can be explained via the Yankee Stadium effect (HR haven in 2009, something BJ couldn’t have predicted when formulating projections last winter).
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