Matt Holliday VS Jason Bay

In Keith Law’s free agent rankings, he lists Matt Holliday as the number one choice on the open market, with Jason Bay as the runner-up to that title. Here are Law’s profiles on each player (I’ll post more of these throughout the day).

On Holliday:

Holliday’s stint in St. Louis didn’t end on a good note, and if he leaves for more lucrative pastures his legacy in Missouri may revolve around the missed catch that cost the Cardinals a win in the NLDS. Prior to that, however, he had re-established his place as a top hitter after reverting to his 2008 setup at the plate and getting away from American League pitching. AL hurlers found what the Red Sox discovered in 2007 — you can beat Holliday with good velocity, and he’ll chase a lot of sliders, although he can crush a bad slider as well as any power hitter. He’s moderately patient with good coverage on the outer half, and of course has plus raw power, particularly to left-center. He’s 16 months younger than Jason Bay and a better left fielder, although he looks extremely awkward out there and memories of his NLDS flub will haunt any general managers thinking of signing him, but he and Bay are the only impact bats on the market and will be paid accordingly.

While Holliday is ranked first, I find his profile to be less than flattering. Sure, the strengths are highlighted, however, they seem to be diluted by immediate negations. For instance, Law praises Holliday’s fielding when compared to Bay’s, then says he’s “extremely awkward” in left. Either way, Holliday’s overall tools are still discussed explicitly and he’s portrayed as the most complete position player available.

Now, on to Bay:

Bay is the best overall hitter on the market this winter, with more offensive potential than Matt Holliday but less defensive value. Bay is extremely patient and has shown he can hit American League pitching, including good fastballs; he’s actually much worse against changeups. He has plus pull power and could have 40-homer potential in a park friendly to right-handed power hitters, like Minute Maid. Bay is not a good defensive left fielder, although Fenway Park has made many left fielders look worse than they actually are, both for scouts and in defensive metrics. I don’t believe Bay is worst-in-the-majors or unplayable in left; he’s below average, but does enough with his bat to compensate. Hitters with strong secondary skills can still provide value even in years in which their batting averages drop due to bad luck on balls in play, and Bay’s patience and power make him a very good bet to live up to expectations.

Whereas Law seemed apprehensive to heap praise upon Holliday, he doesn’t hold back with Jason Bay. Even when discussing Bay’s faults Law finds a way to recalibrate Bay’s value. Jay is “below average,” defensively, he notes, “but does enough with the bat to compensate.” There’s no doubt that Jason Bay is a top-tier FA, particularly because of his offense, however, his fielding is poor enough to force him into the category of second best. Law doesn’t appear eager to rank Bay second, but he must, as defense does count for something.

Of these two players, who would you rather have? I’ve outwardly stated whose camp I’m in, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t differing opinions on the subject. Bay or Holliday, who would be the better pinstriped player?

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