Law on Lackey

From Keith Law’s (ESPN) FA rankings, we have the following profile on John Lackey, who the Yankees have been linked to this offseason. Law ranks Lackey third amongst available free agents (only Holliday and Bay are ranked better).

Lackey is the only bona fide No. 1 starter on the market this offseason; although others have the capacity to pitch at that level, they’re all either hurt, struggled in 2009 or lack a major league track record. That, and the perpetual demand for high-quality starting pitching, should give Lackey a healthy market even if teams remain reluctant to spend on free agents. He throws four pitches but works primarily with his fastball, curve and slider. The fastball is 91-94 mph with some riding tail, although I’ve seen him cut a 92 mph fastball, as well. The slider is 83-85 with good tilt and some depth; it’s better than his curveball, an upper 70s pitch with good depth, which he prefers to the slider. Lackey is big and well-built with easy velocity and commands all three of his main pitches. The one negative on his résumé is minor arm trouble that limited him to 51 starts over the past two years, which would make me hesitant to pay him like a 33-start workhorse, even though he’s built like one and was that guy from his 2002 debut until 2008.

Lackey doesn’t have the best stuff on the free agent market (see Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, etc.), however, his stuff is still very good and he’s a horse (as Law notes, recent injuries have been minor). Basically, he’s a fine pickup for any team, including the Yankees. In the end, it’s all about the money, though. If he wants $18-20 million per, I don’t think he’ll get it from Brian Cashman (even if he deserves it).

How much do you think Lackey is worth?

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