Marlins would want a Halladay-like package for Johnson?
November 27, 2009, 2:30 pm by iYankees · 15 Comments
A few days ago, I pondered a possible Josh Johnson trade, with the Yankees serving as the recipients of the young Marlin. As you probably know, Johnson and the Marlins have met an impasse in their negotiations for a new contract and it doesn’t appear likely that the two parties will reach a new agreement anytime soon. For a team with a limited payroll, such disputes can often breed trades, especially since Johnson will receive a raise via arbitration.
Although Florida owner Jeff Loria recently expressed his “love” for Johnson to the Miami Herald, suggesting that he would like to keep the young right-hander, at least through 2010, Keith Law (ESPN) seems to think that a trade is possible this winter. He also offers his view as to what the Marlins might require for two years of the emerging ace:
“The Marlins actually have a history of moving guys early, and in Johnson — under control for whoever gets him for two more years — they have a player who is worth a major package of prospects. Think: two ML-ready guys, plus two solid prospects at the Double-A level. In Johnson you have a difference-maker like Halladay, but you have that extra year of control. He doesn’t have Halladay’s history of durability, but few do.”
Two major league-ready players and two “solid prospects” sounds awfully familiar to what Toronto is reportedly seeking for Roy Halladay. Now, Johnson isn’t in the same class as Halladay in terms of a durability history, which Law notes, but he’s also not in Halladay’s class in terms of proven and prolonged effectiveness. In addition, teams can operate under the assumption that Halladay will dominate in both the American and National League, whereas the same assumption cannot be made with regards to Johnson (despite his talent). Johnson is, however, a cheaper solution and can be had for an extra year—these are his selling points when compared to Halladay—which is very enticing.
However, if Law is correct and the Marlins are looking for a Halladay-like package, I doubt they’ll actually receive one—not when Halladay is currently available. If teams are willing to part with a gaggle of productive prospects for one pitcher, in order to win now, it seems as though they would trade for Halladay’s track record before spending on Johnson’s upside. Perhaps if the Marlins wanted just one major league ready-player, plus prospects, or if it was clear that Halladay wanted an expensive extension in return for waiving his no-trade clause, maybe then Johnson could emerge as a better investment (or if it was clear that he would sign the 4-year deal he originally wanted with Florida, upon being traded).
Until then, though, if you’re going to give up your best prospects, it has to be for Roy Halladay.
Photo via FTLOB
I’m going to have to go opposite of you here. I’d much rather give up the best guys for Josh Johnson rather than Roy Halladay. Mainly due the the age difference and Halladay’s best days are most likely behind him. Yes, he will still be a great pitcher but thinking overall value Johnson would be the better guy to deal for.
Halladay would require 85-100 million dollar extension I would assume. I bet Johnson would sign for 45-50 extension. Save the Yankees a lot of money and wouldn’t have them have 3 guys in the rotation making 60 million between them in one year.
Plus to quote Mike A over on RAB – Joba or Hughes’ ceiling is probably that of Josh Johnson. Johnson is really, really good. Rather see him in Yankee pinstripes rather than Roy Halladay.
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If Johnson is willing to sign an extension, I would trade Hughes and others for him without hesitating. That way, you would have him for about 4 years and at a reasonable rate. But, if you’re only getting him for 2 years, and are giving up your best prospects, I think I would be inclined to trade for Halladay, instead (assuming there’s no extension for Halladay). Halladay, in 2010, will probably be a lot easier to predict than Johnson in 2010 (in the AL).
Also, I wonder about Mike’s comment. Why trade either Joba or Hughes (you’d have to give up one, it seems) when both players have Josh Johnson ceilings? Why not just hold onto them and develop your own Josh Johnson then?
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I really doubt Hughes ever comes close to Johnson’s talent level or production and the only way Joba has a ceiling the height of Johnson’s is if his velocity comes back in a big way next year otherwise I don’t know how a reliever has Josh Johnson potential.
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Clay Bucholz average fastball velocity this year was 93.6 Joba Chamberlain the “power pitcher” between the two averaged a velocity of 92.5 MPH… If that doesn’t go up he isn’t anything but average.
89-93 MPH as a starter and 93-96 MPH as a reliever isn’t Josh Johnson.
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Joba’s velocity definitely has to increase in order for him to be a real threat for the Yankees. We’ve seen him throw in the 93-96 mph range in some of his starts, most of them were last year, though not this year. We know he can throw that hard outside of the bullpen. Something was wrong in 2009, however. Not sure if it was mechanical or mental.
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I know they changed his delivery at the beginning of the year to help prevent injury and we have been over it before… What if this delivery only allows him to throw this hard? What is he? Is it worth it to go back to the old delivery and just deal with injuries as they come? to me it makes sense to have the good Joba sometimes because of injury rather than having this Joba all the time.
It wasn’t just that he wasn’t throwing 93-96 this year, at times he as starting games throwing 88 and 89 MPH and his velocity wouldn’t pick up past 91 by the time he left that just won’t work.
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How do you even assume that Johnson will make 45-50 million? The guy doesn’t even have his contract come up for 2 years and in that time the economy will be on the rebound and Josh will be commanding more money than Halladay will now.
I see no way you get Josh to sign an extension for less than 16 million a year, I mean Burnett got 16.5 at 31 with 2 pitches and his best days behind him. Johnson has 4 pitches (if you count the cutter) and he would only be 27 at the time of his next contract if he waited to sign until then.
I doubt Johnson would sign anything below 4 years and I would assume he would want 5 years coming out to at least 80 million dollars for 5 years and that may be a low estimate, especially if he can prove himself to stay healthy and continue to dominate.
Why does everyone assume the Marlins want Joba or Hughes? Have they ever been ones to trade for maybe so’s? They go for the assured prospects over the could be prospects and in our system only Montero meets the “sure thing” eye test, if they want anyone for Johnson I would assume it would be Montero+ in the wake of the Hanley Ramirez+ deal for Josh Beckett. The Marlins got pitching prospects like Anibal Sanchez in order to get the big fish in Hanley. They would take a McAllister just to get Montero.
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Johnson was trying to sign an extension with the Marlins that was identical to Zack Greinke’s with the Royals. The Marlins would have paid him only $27M in 2012-13. He’s open to signing a reasonable extension, or at least he was with the Marlins.
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If he hits the free agent market he could get a lot more than that, in 2 years he will be the other pitcher available when Felix Hernandez hits free agency. Whoever loses out on King Felix can pick up Johnson and he can use that to make big money.
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Yea, he definitely can, but he was willing to sign with the Marlins and forgo two FA years. Not sure why the Marlins didn’t accept that deal.
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Not sure why he wanted too! The only thing I can think is that he doesn’t feel confident in his arm to make it to free agency and or they don’t feel confident in his arm making it through 4 years.
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Josh Johnson and Cameron Maybin
For
Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson, McAllister, Robertson, Juan Miranda and D.J. Mitchell
It’s 2 for 6 but basically we are swapping Hughes and Jackson for Johnson and Maybin and throwing in McAllister, Robertson, Miranda and Mitchell… I’m not sure if that would even get a deal done though. Miranda is a major league ready hitter, Robertson is a major league ready pitcher and McAllister and Jackson are simi major league ready but need some more time in triple A before being called up.
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Montero would have to be included in that deal. I don’t even know of the Yankees could pull it off, to tell you the truth. Maybin, alone, would cost an arm and a leg.
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Maybin is a good player but he projects very similar to Austin Jackson as far as hitting 10-20 HRs with 25+ SBs and playing above average CF defense. I wouldn’t include Montero in any deal that Hughes is in already and I wouldn’t trade Montero for an injury prone pitcher.
To tell the truth I just want to keep Joba and Montero and ride it out and see where they go, the only one I am willing to trade is Hughes and that’s only because he doesn’t have as much upside as the others.
If Montero becomes what he can he is a 30-40+ HR guy and if Joba becomes what he can you have a guy throwing 93-96 occasionally touching 97 and 98. Hughes however isn’t going to be that at best to me Hughes projects as a good number 3 starter which isn’t a bad thing but if you can trade him to someone who is thinking he is a future ace I say do it.
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I was comparing Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes to Josh Johnson on Fangraphs and the graphs show Hughes and Josh Johnson as almost the same pitcher.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=2692&playerid2=7450&playerid3=4567&position=P&page=2&type=full
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