Winn signing makes more sense if…
January 29, 2010, 11:00 am by iYankees · 34 Comments
On Wednesday, in a move that will draw the ire of fans well into the regular season, the Yankees signed the 35-year old Randy Winn to a one-year deal worth $2 million. Now, while I do not despise the addition – Winn will rebound (to some degree) after a poor 2009 campaign, in which his .314 BABIP was somewhat lower than his career norm (about .330) despite posting the highest line drive percentage of his career (22.3%) and, to his credit, he did battle some nagging albeit minor lower half injures (to his right knee and right foot) – however, when you think of the Yankees current macro and micro-level needs, and factor in roster space, the signing seems somewhat strange to me.
The Yankees did not need simply another outfielder as they already have Jamie Hoffmann in tow, rather, they needed an outfielder who could hit left-handed pitching well enough to justify pairing he and Brett Gardner together in a semi-platoon of sorts (and one that can also sub in for Curtis Granderson on some days). In his long career, Winn, a switch-hitter, holds a .280/.332/.426 triple slash line against lefties. That’s not bad at all, but you could do better for a platoon, right? The Yankees seemingly know this, which is why we have heard reports that they will still pursue a right-handed outfield bat – Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Thames, etc. – but only on a minor-league deal, allowing that player to compete for a roster spot in the spring. However, the problem is, the team’s bench ideally features four position players and the Yankees cannot wastefully retain three outfielders (Winn, Hoffmann, TBA). What will likely occur is that the organization will send Jamie Hoffmann back to the Dodgers in the spring as this then allows Winn, with his gifted glove, good speed, switch-hitting bat, and veteran presence, to take over as the team’s primary reserve outfielder. 1 His tools seem more valuable than whatever Hoffmann can contribute. By doing this, we would see a bench of Winn, TBA, Pena, and Cervelli, and Wednesday’s signing will go from making some sense, to a lot of sense.
So, as of right now, the Winn signing, because it did not address the team’s particular needs, not because it precludes the team from signing Johnny Damon (which it does, but that’s not the issue), is a peculiar one. If the Yankees add an actual right-handed bat – Jon Heyman thinks Marcus Thames’ history with NY could be an attractive selling point – and return Hoffmann to Los Angeles, I think the move will look a lot better. Until then, though, I won’t get the addition.
Photo by Getty Images
- I’m basically assuming that the Dodgers will take Hoffmann back, which is a logical assumption ↩
Perfect! Best picture ever.
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The one thing I will point out is you say it precludes the signing of Damon. It doesn’t. Damon precludes the signing of Damon. It is very clear that there was a limit to how low of a salary Damon was willing to take and it is equally clear that the Yankees believed him to not be worth that amount (and as much as you may appreciate his effort, it’s hard not to understand their reluctance to commit serious dollars and multiple years to a 36 year old DH they couldn’t play at DH who was half the player outside of Yankee stadium that he was inside it). Damon was NEVER going to be an option for the Yankees.
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You know, you’re 100% right, Drew. I guess I meant that the Winn signing indicates that the Yankees were out altogether on Damon, but even that’s wrong, because, as you said, “Damon was NEVER going to be an option for the Yankees.”
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Yanks clearly wanted Damon back early in the process,Thats why Matsui was let go.Borass and his unreal demands pushed Cashman to sign NJ.At that point the Yanks would only have had Damon back at their price.Which wasn’t going to happen.Johnny was no longer a great fit.
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Yeah I am not sure I even buy that the Yanks wanted him back early in the process. Girardi really hated his lack of flexibility last year and while Matsui and Damon were key cogs, they also were VERY limited in what they could do. Both of them back was a complete non starter but I think the prevailing opinion was if we can get a really good deal on Damon fine, but in the long run it is probably better to let him walk and let him start his inevitable decline on someone else’s roster.
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Drew they were willng to give Damon 14 mil 2 years in hindsight Damon wishes he took that deal.Yanks wanted him back and having him instead of NJ would have given them more flexibility not less.As far as his decline you make a very good point.
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That was also before the Granderson deal went down and at a time that they weren’t sure if they could get Granderson, once Curtis was added Damon had no leverage and was completely useless. I agree with Drew on pretty much everything he said there.
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i think thames would be a good fit has tremendous power against lefties and in his career in general has been more successful when facing left handed batters.
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I agree with you Jay Thames would be a good finishing piece.He is a real power bat to compliment all the lefty’s.Baldelli’s also a good fit.
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obviously i meant left handed pitchers
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I think Baldelli would sign a minor league deal, considering his long history of injuries. That would give the Yanks the RH bat off the bench, and one who could hit LHP (.290 in 2009)
Is there any way the Yankees can still sign Reed Johnson ??..He would have been perfect as RH platoon with Gardner (.324 vs. LHP in 2009, .313 career vs. LHP)
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Batting 2009….Brett against LH pitchers;
.291 BA/.381 OBP/.400 Slg/.781 OPS small sample but, this is his line(+/-) for his career in the minors also. I don’t believe he is the one we need a right handed bat for.
Last year (even with his slow start) in his first 77 games his line was; BA .282/ OBP .352/ Slg. .404/ OPS .757. After he came back from injury it was baaaad, but the point is…
Why are some fans (and blogs) so down on Brett. Other then not being a star player, what is his down side?
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Yanks need to give GARDY a chance and not part time.The problem with the Yanks is unless things are going bad they have no patience with their young players.On this team batting 9th and playing great defense there’s no reason not to give him a long look.Consider Carl Crawfords start in the bigs if he was a Yankee he probably wouldn’t be one now.
02-ab=259/hr=2/avg=259/obp=290/ops=661/sb=9/cs=5
03-ab=630/hr=5/avg=281/obp=309/ops=671/sb=55/cs=10
I doubt the Yanks would have given him a 3rd year.Those are some bad stats.
04-ab=626/hr=11/avg=296/obp=331/ops=781/sb=59/cs=15
Having patience payed off and now Yanks would love to have him.
Intresting comp with Gardner.
09-ab=248/hr=3/avg=270/obp=345/ops=724/sb=26/cs=5
Gives you something to think about.
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Why does Gardner need a platoon. He hit pretty well vs lefties last year (.291/.381/.400). I’d like to see him get a chance as a full time OF.
Good article on Gardner by Chad Jennings at LoHud:
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/01/28/does-gardner-actually-need-a-platoon-partner/
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He definitely doesn’t need a strict platoon, but having a right-handed bat to help him against guys like Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, etc., would be beneficial to the Yankees, especially with Curtis Granderson around as well. I would never want to see the Yankees permanently platoon a Marcus Thames or a Rocco Baldelli with Gardner for a number of reasons, but I do think it is worthwhile to have another option on the table.
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He may have hit lefties well last year but it’s too small a sample size he only had 55 at bats against lefties last year and he only has 79 ABs total in his career against left handed batters with a mediocre line. .241/.310/.316/.626
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Winn get most of the playing time in LF this with Gardner being a pinch runner and defensive replacement most of the time, by signing Winn to me it says they don’t trust Gardner with any big role on the team and even though he may see some playing time this year in the field it won’t be more time than Winn. I can definitely see Hoffman going back to the Dodgers but I doubt Thames comes in, Winn can switch hit so if Long can help straighten him out from the right side of the plate they may just settle with Winn and his defense as the starter in LF knowing he has at least a slightly better bat than Gardner.
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T.O.is back !Where have you been,we missed you.
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Little real Yankee news and the real world put me on hold for a while… My computer went down yesterday though so I couldn’t comment on Winn until now.
I posted the splits in the new thread but people are acting like Randy Winn can’t play, the guy may not have been my top choice but he is a switch hitter who has hit well from both sides of the plate, last year was somewhat of a fluke hitting so poorly against left handed pitching but if that is fixed (which previous numbers show it can be) than he isn’t a bad pick up at all.
Winn’s splits in 2008
Vs left .289/.343/.470/.813
Vs right .313/.371/.410/.781
Winn’s splits over the last 3 years
Vs left .280/.326/.427/.753
Vs right .294/.353/.404/.757
I don’t see why he has to be the bench player in this scenario, if he can put up numbers with his bat like those then I could easily see Gardner’s speed being more valuable off the bench than Winn’s defense and switch hitting.
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I don’t think people think he can’t play, just don’t understand why you pay him when there were clearly other ways to better fill the void. He is certainly a solid major leaguer, but with the yankees team the way it was right now i’m not sure he improves the team much, unless he takes hoffmans spot as the utility outfielder. Just seems like the money could have been better spent is all.
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Who else is playing for 2 million and is better than Randy Winn?
Reed Johnson is probably a better platoon player but when Winn hits from both sides of the plate he is a better overall ball player.
Thames isn’t much of an outfielder anymore and defense was key for any signing who was going to come in for the Yankees.
Nady got over 3 million so it’s not like there were a whole bunch of players clambering for that kind of money and Damon wasn’t even in the equation to me.
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side note: if damon really did decline the yankees offer of 6 mil and 3 mil deffered, im interested to hear more. But if we already had hoffman as our utility backup outfielder i would rather bring in reed johnson to platoon even if he cost slightly more than winn because then we cover our bases, in this case now we have two above average backup defensive outfielders which is an unnecessary surplus. I would also rather have thames because of his natural power, as a bat off the bench he wiull at least somewhat intimidate opposing pitchers, which winn will not. so if we had hoffman as our defensive replacement/backup and thames or johnson as a platoon/pinch hitter, i see the team as a more well rounded unit than we currently have. However as mentioned above should winn take hoffmans utility spot and we sign thames/johnson to fill that bench/platoon role then i think the team made an excellent step up other than the wasted trade of brain bruney (not that we probably could have gotten much anyway). I just feel like winn is a slightly better option for the team for the role that we already have hoffman to fill, where reed and thames would be more multipurpose in terms of threats off the bench as well
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It’s not a wasted trade for Bruney even if we do give back Hoffman because Bruney was going into arbitration and came out with 2 million dollars so we traded Bruney to sign Winn basically.
The difference is that Randy Winn can still start in this league and I don’t view him as a backup, he may end up in that role but he isn’t a backup the way Hoffman is because Winn has the bat to be a starter and has proven it before. He hit over .300 in 2008 in AT&T.
If Winn can win the starting job in spring training then you have Gardner and Hoffman on the bench and Hoffman is a late inning defensive replacement while Gardner is the pinch runner as well as defensive replacement.
Thames can’t play the outfield much and wouldn’t be an option like Winn, I wouldn’t mind adding Thames over Hoffman but that won’t happen because of the money but if is between Winn and Thames I will take Winn’s switch hitting and defense. No one is really afraid of Marcus Thames anymore so for me that isn’t an argument I would be willing to believe.
The difference in Reed and Winn is that Winn can actually start and Reed is nothing more than a platoon with Gardner with no upside past that. I think in spring training you will see Gardner and Winn battle it out for whoever gets the last outfield spot and Gardner will take CF if he wins and Winn will take LF if he wins and I trust in Winn’s bat enough to beat out Gardner who no one really knows what kind of bat he has because his samples are too low.
Winn hit above .300 in 2008 and 2007 which is more than you can say for Gardner so if Winn bounces back and has a year closer to those two years then I think he deserve the start in LF which makes his signing more valuable than Thames or Reed because neither of those 2 could have even fought for a starting job. At least this way Gardner doesn’t get complacent with thinking he can’t be replaced.
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I think you are missing my point. I am not disagreeing with what you are saying. but if we end up with hoffman and gardener on the bench and winn starting in left field even gardener is our defensive replacement and pinch runner and what is the purpose of hoffman, in which case i am saying to the team thames is a more valuable piece. Winn is 36 years old and given he had a career high line drive rate low babip like everyone is saying but the fact of the matter is at 36 years old a rebound is not automatic. Personally i want gardy to win the startign job have a chance to flourtish or at least see what he can do with larger sample sizes because i belive that his potential upside (stolen bases, defense ect) is higher than a 36 year old winns. I take winn over hoffman any day, but my point is that i think in tearms of team value (say change in wins over a season) the difference is minimalwhere as having a right handed platoon for brett could provide more of an impact than the upgrade of hoffman to winn. If winn and hoffman are both on our bench when does hoffman ever play?defensively you put winn in, offensively you put winn in. If thames and hoffman were on the bench defensively you put hoffman in offensively /platoon you put thames in, if thames and winn are in you have winn as a defensive replacement and thames as an offensive pinch hitter.my point isn’t to say winn isn’t a good player, her is, my point is we are stocking up on too many of the same type of player, when variety would do more to help the team as a whole
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He only has to bounce back on one side of the plate because he still had a respectable line from the left side in 2009 (.292/.354/.397/.751) and in fact this is a better line from the left side in 418 ABs than Gardner had last year on both sides in 248 ABs. If Winn bounces back on the right side only to either his 2008 or 2007 form and you have a left fielder who will hit over .270 and play good defense which is basically the best you can hope for out of Gardner.
Winn starting with Gardner on the bench is better than a platoon of Gardner and Reed Johnson or Marcus Thames IMO.
I assume at this point Hoffman may be going back to the Dodgers anyway but I really see no offensive numbers to say that Gardner will have a better bat than Winn and I believe Winn will eventually take over the LF job either in spring training or not to long into the season as Melky did last year.
Even if we dump Hoffman I really doubt the Yankees are going to go get Thames they just don’t seem inclined to spend the money if they did you would have seen them offer more to Damon.
Gardner, Cervelli, Pena and Miranda is the original bench I think you will see us with and maybe Hoffman will be on it and maybe he won’t but in the end I think Winn will get the LF job and Gardner will slot onto the bench.
I have a bunch of stats supporting this argument in the new thread so I will refer you to there instead of re-posting them here.
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well we shall see how it all works out i suppose. I would love to see miranda on the bench too. Kid has power, that homerun he hit in tampa bay last year was a shot and a half. I see your point, T.O. chris and i understand where you are coming from, I just value gardener as a better defender than winn, and see his potential stolen base totals as very appealing, having him hit nine and swipe second with jeter up is a combination i would like to see more of. I don’t hate the winn signing and i think he is a VERY solid player, I would not like him to be our starting left fielder, as I want to see gardener ranging center next year. I know the questoins about gardeners bat but he deserves a chance because having 40 stolen bases from the 9 hole would be something special. I understand winns overall value as a player, trust me, i remember watching him in seattle, but i would rather see at bats go to gardener to give himself a chance to take the next step or fail (in which case winn will be great). However you look at it it should be a great club and i certainly wouldnt be canceling season tickets over it. I live in boston and am trying to get season opener tickets to the sunday night game in fenway, all things considered this season should be a great one and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
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Jay – your comments are certainly valid.
1. Giving Gardner a good look and letting his talent continue to grow rather than be stifled on the bench for a player at the end of their career (JD?)
2. Watching Gardner possibly steal 50+ bases out of the 9 hole would be exciting.
3. Gardner’s speed could be utilized in Center or YS vast LF
3. Winn is a good player to have as a backup plan
good job!
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I really doubt Gardner could steal 50 out of the 9 hole… If he gets the same number of at bats Melky did last year (485) he would have to steal a base every 9.7 at bats and that means he would have 237 more at bats in 2010 than he did in 2009 and it would be 110 more at bats in one season than he has had in his 2 years in the big leagues.
Melky had 133 hits last year if Gardner gets that many hits in the 485 at bats which would be a feat considering he only has 96 hits in his career he would have to steal a base every 2.6 hits just to get to 50. He’s fast but 50 in the 9 hole is hard on a team that runs a lot and they aren’t going to throw away Jeter at bats and the top of the lineup if he gets thrown out. The Yankees just don’t work like that and Jeter swings at the first pitch so often it would be hard to make him slow his at bats down to allow Gardner to get a read on the pitcher to take 50 bags. It’s possible but highly unlikely.
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Good post…
We lived though the good and not so good of Melky, why can’t Brett be given the same chance that he had. 240+ at bats , plus a hand injury, is not a great way of giving a guy a chance to show what he can do with 450+ at bats when healthy.
I will leave it up to the powers that be (Joe/Cashman) to decide who plays any given position. They have the inside information we, as fans will never see.
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The point is sure you could just hand over the reigns to Gardner and we can see what he can do but what if he is doing bad? Keep him in and just let him see what he can do?
I am not in favor of handing over the position to anybody… We struggled with Melky because we had no choice no one else was there to play the position and we really hurt his development because of it.
There should be a battle between the two (Winn and Gardner) in spring training to see who gets the job but what I am saying is that we in the last 3 years Ryan Winn has had 2 good season and 1 season in which he was still good from the left side just not good from the right side. Why wouldn’t you get one good season left out Winn and let Gardner pinch run, defensive replacement and get days to start for Granderson and days to start for Winn and when Swisher needs a day off Winn can go to RF and Gardner to LF.
I just see no reason to hand the position over to .256/.325/.352/.677 (Gardner) when .286/.344/.418/.762 (Winn) is on the bench ready to go.
Last year Gardner’s line was respectable in .270/.345/.379/.724 but from the left side of the plate the same side of the plate Gardner always bats from Winn did better .292/.354/.397/.751 in 418 ABs (170 more ABs) so if Winn can just raise his batting average from the right side back to where it was in 2008 and 2007 then you are looking at a player better than Gardner with the bat from the left side and he can switch hit to prevent the match up disadvantage Gardner has.
(as a right handed batter)
2007- 185 ABs Vs LHP .351/.399/.535/.934
2008- 166 ABs Vs LHP .289/.343/.470/.813
2009- 120 ABs vs LHP .158/.184/.200/.384
As you can see Winn has hit from the right side of the plate before and done so very well all he has to do is fix what went wrong from that side of the plate.
(as a left handed batter)
2007- 408 ABs vs RHP .277/.332/.404/.736
2008- 432 ABs Vs RHP .313/.371/.410/.781
2009- 418 Abs Vs RHP .292/.354/.397/.751
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The Yanks are creating some competition for several jobs this spring.They are not handing their young guys jobs at least not publicly.This is a good thing especialy after winning a world series.My guess its Gardners job to loose and the bigger question is do they move him into CF,and Granderson to LF.Winn is a great defensive outfielder a switch hitter that has hit over 300 in 2 of the last 3 years and he can steal you a base great pickup for 2 mil.On given days with Gardner in CF,Granderson in LF and Winn in RF is there a better defensive outfield in baseball?Gardner and Winn will both get plenty of playing time.
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What brings more value? Winn playing left field and hitting at a level that he did in 2007 and 2008 with Gardner on the bench or Gardner in LF and Winn off the bench?
To me it’s a no brianer, if Winn can play at that level it gives us more value to have him in left field and Gardner’s speed as a weapon off the bench.
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Nice thread. After reading the comments – I have to say : game,set,match- BALLPARK !
A possible scenario is Gardner wins the job in ST (he will not be handed it).
He continues his development and progresses well.
He gets 550 PAs, 140 hits, 60 walks, = .285 BA and .365 OBP
he steals a base once every 4 times on base = 50 stolen bases
Not out of the realm of possibility at all.
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