Explaining Mariano’s velocity dip in 2009
March 2, 2010, 1:45 pm by iYankees · 8 Comments
Yesterday, after throwing his first bullpen session of the spring, Mariano Rivera, a timeless fixture in the Yankees bullpen, discussed a topic which he rarely needs to address—his own fragility. The 40-year old Rivera underwent surgery prior to the 2009 season in order to remove a bothersome calcification from his right shoulder. When asked about the shoulder last spring, Rivera would flash a smile to reporters and and say that he was alright. However, after firing 21 fastballs yesterday, Rivera and his manager, Joe Girardi, finally admitted that, as a result of the calcification procedure, the greatest closer of all time did struggle to develop his arm strength well into the regular season.
“It was hard, but it wasn’t impossible,” Rivera noted when asked about the surgery’s strength-sucking affect on him last year. “I took the challenge and it worked,” he said, adding that his rehab was done during the regular season as opposed to Spring Training. Girardi furthered Rivera’s story, saying that it took “a good six weeks to two months” before Rivera’s arm strength had fully returned. “I know he’s a lot further along than he was at this time last year,” Girardi stated. “At times he couldn’t extend [his arm] early on in camp. He had none of those issues [Monday].”
This news, of course, should please Yankee fans, mainly because it helps to lessen the concern some might have regarding the velocity issues Rivera experienced a year ago. In 2009, after Rivera’s four-seam fastball and cutter had averaged 93.1 mph and 92.8 mph in 2008, the average velocity of his four-seamer dipped to 91.8 mph and the average velocity of his cutter fell to 91.3 mph (the lowest velocities on record for Rivera). When one considers Rivera’s age, the loss in velocity is significant, and could indicate a continued loss of velocity going forward. A lack of arm strength certainly gives a reason for the velocity decrease though (in part, age could still be a relevant factor), and when you look at a month-to-month view of his average velocity, Rivera’s fastball saw an uptick in speed in September and October (the cutter did not). Even if the lack of velocity is real, Rivera locates well and generates great movement to get outs. Still, we can be optimistic about his pitch velocity going forward as he is a full year removed from shoulder surgery and he will likely have better arm strength for the entire season, whereas that was not the case for 2009.
Photo by the AP
Mo is the least of our worries. His velocity will be better this yr and if its the same as 09 so be it. It had no effect on his performance. He wasn’t as sharp in the 1st half which is natural coming off surgery but he dominated in the 2nd half and the post-season.
There will NEVER be another reliever like Mo. He is Babe Ruth of relievers.
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I think the downturn in velocity did affect his performance in that he chose to throw more cutters – the pitch with more movement – and abandoned his four-seam fastball almost completely. But, you’re definitely right regarding the results. He did what he always does. Now that we know arm strength was an issue last season, hopefully he’ll have some heat on his pitches this season, so that he can be comfortable throwing the four-seamer when he wants to. If not though, I’m not worried (as long as his velocity doesn’t fall further).
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Fangraphs shows he threw the cutter 93% of the time, but watching the games that number seems very high. That basically means in a standard 19 pitch outing, he threw only one 2-seam or 4-seam FB and 18 cutters. I wonder if the Pitch FX data classifies his 2-seamer as a cutter since it is slightly lower in velocity than his 4-seamer. Mo has thrown the 2-seamer a lot more over the last 3-4 yrs and this coincides with the Pitch FX data showing a sharp increase in the amount of cutters every season since 06′.
All 3 of Mo’s pitches, 4-seamer, 2-seamer & Cutter are thrown within 1-2 mphs of one another, it may be difficult to accurately classify what he’s throwing. The FX movement is likely the indicator they use. But whatever Mo is throwin, I like it. I really marvel at what he continues to accomplish – especially his post-aeason performances. How many of those 5-rings would the Yanks have won with just a “regular” closer?
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tremendous comment FISHsticks. Your take that Mo’s 2 seamer that sinks and breaks in on a RH batter are being misclassified as his 4 seam cutter that breaks laterally in on a LH batter is particularly astute and right on. Many see it as a backdoor cutter to a lefty but it’s not. It is nipping the opposite corner to the batter but the grip and movement is much different from his standard cutter. The classification total I do believe is his low 4 seam fastball count. This is Mo’s up the latter straight fastball heat where Posada stands up slightly giving a high target when there are 2 strikes on the batter early in the count. He use to throw it much more often when he was dealing at 97mph.
Time has caught up to his velocity and may catch up some more this year. But his pinpoint accuracy and late break on his 4 seam cutter and 2 seamer should close the door 35-45 times this season.
He has become uncanny with his control of this pitch particularly in 08 when I thought he had one of his best years ever. Check out his Whip, era, k/9 and k/bb ratio that year and tell they weren’t unreal.
Absoltel
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FISHjam…Amen to that.
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the one consider the age,the loss in velocity is significant, and could indicate a continued loss of velocity going forward. that he is a full year removed from shoulder surgery.
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